Asia Gas Tracker 2024 Report Methodology
Calculations for 2030 electricity demand
Southeast Asian power demand has grown[1] by more than 6% annually over the past 20 years on average. So we assumed a 6% annual growth in electricity generation to compute the total generation required in 2030. 2022 Generation data were gathered from Ember Climate's electricity data release[2] and are shown in table 1. 2030 electricity demand calculations are shown in table 2.
Table 1: 2022 Electricity Generation for Southeast Asian Countries
| Country | 2022 Electricity Generation (TWh/year) |
| Brunei Darussalam | 5.75 |
| Cambodia | 8.81 |
| Indonesia | 333.54 |
| Lao People's Democratic Republic (the) | 45.95 |
| Malaysia | 181.09 |
| Myanmar | 20.39 |
| Philippines (the) | 113.01 |
| Singapore | 56.92 |
| Thailand | 180.35 |
| Timor-Leste | 0.51 |
| Viet Nam | 259.98 |
| Total | 1206.3 |
Table 2: 2022 Electricity Generation for Southeast Asian Countries
| 2022 Electricity Generation (TWh/year) | 1,206 |
| Estimated electricity demand based on 6% annual growth | |
| 2023 (TWh/year) | 1,279 |
| 2024 (TWh/year) | 1,355 |
| 2025 (TWh/year) | 1,437 |
| 2026 (TWh/year) | 1,523 |
| 2027 (TWh/year) | 1,614 |
| 2028 (TWh/year) | 1,711 |
| 2029 (TWh/year) | 1,814 |
| 2030 (TWh/year) | 1,923 |
| Additional demand by 2030 (TWh/year) | 716 |
Capacity factors
The average regional capacity factor values for wind and solar are reasonable estimates, based on two sources:
- Ember capacity and generation data[2] for Southeast Asian countries
- IRENA’s energy yield for wind and solar, as show in its Global Atlas products[3], specifically, the Global Wind Atlas and Global Solar Atlas. The capacity factors were estimated based on average across each country.
Regional capacity factor for gas power plants is taken from the estimates[4] made by the Global Oil and Gas Plant Tracker[5]. Capacity factors used in the report are shown in table 3.
Table 3: Capacity factors used to convert between generation and capacity
| Technology | Capacity Factor |
| Onshore wind | 0.26 |
| Offshore wind | 0.34 |
| Solar | 0.17 |
| Gas | 0.399 |
Calculations for power generation potential from onshore wind and solar PV resources
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) estimated[6] 30,523 GW of solar and 1,383 GW of onshore wind theoretical potential in ASEAN region. Power generation potential from onshore wind and solar PV resources, based on the respective capacity factors is shown in table 4.
The following formula was used to calculate the capacity (MW):
Capacity [MW] = Generation [TWh/year] * 1,000,000 * 1 / Capacity Factor * 1 / (8,760 hrs/year)
Table 4: Power generation potential from onshore wind and solar PV resources
| Capacity (MW) | Electricity generation potential (TWh/year) | |
| Solar PV | 30,523,000 | 45,455 |
| Onshore wind | 1,383,000 | 3,150 |
| 48,605 |
Calculations for power generation potential from in-development gas, solar, and wind capacity
The data is gathered from Global Oil and Gas Plant Tracker[5], Global Solar Power Tracker[7] and Global Wind Power Tracker[8]. The datasets are available for use under a creative commons license. Table 5 and 6 show gas, solar, and wind power capacity in development in Southeast Asia.
Table 5: Gas power capacity in development in Southeast Asia
| Country | Gas power capacity in development (MW) |
| Brunei | 0 |
| Cambodia | 800 |
| Indonesia | 14,414 |
| Laos | 0 |
| Malaysia | 6,050 |
| Myanmar | 3,628 |
| Philippines | 25,302 |
| Singapore | 1,280 |
| Thailand | 10,520 |
| Timor-Leste | 0 |
| Vietnam | 44,164 |
| Total (MW) | 106,158 |
Using regional capacity factor of 0.399, Corresponding electricity generation potential is 371 TWh/year
Table 6: Solar PV and wind power capacity in development in Southeast Asia
| Country | Solar PV capacity in-development (MW) | Wind capacity in-development (MW) |
| Brunei | 30 | 0 |
| Cambodia | 2,470 | 0 |
| Indonesia | 16,530 | 2486 |
| Laos | 304 | 3680 |
| Malaysia | 2,372 | 0 |
| Myanmar | 340 | 4732 |
| Philippines | 36,587 | 62809 |
| Singapore | 624 | 50 |
| Thailand | 2,702 | 435 |
| Timor-Leste | 0 | 0 |
| Vietnam | 10,195 | 76023 |
| Total | 72,154 | 150,215 |
Using the capacity factors of 0.26 and 0.17, the power generation potential of wind and solar PV projects in development is 342 TWh/year and 107 TWh/year respectively. Please note that Gem tracker includes both onshore and offshore wind. Even though offshore wind tends to have a higher capacity factor than onshore wind, this estimate uses onshore wind capacity factor to keep the estimate conservative.
References
- ↑ "2020 Regional focus: Southeast Asia – Electricity Market Report - December 2020 – Analysis". IEA. Retrieved 2024-05-01.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 "Yearly electricity data". Ember. 2024-04-17. Retrieved 2024-05-01.
- ↑ "Global Atlas". www.irena.org. Retrieved 2024-05-01.
- ↑ "Estimating carbon dioxide emissions from gas plants". Global Energy Monitor. Retrieved 2024-05-01.
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 "Global Oil and Gas Plant Tracker". Global Energy Monitor. 2022-03-22. Retrieved 2024-05-01.
- ↑ EXPLORING RENEWABLE ENERGY OPPORTUNITIES IN SELECT SOUTHEAST ASIAN COUNTRIES - A Geospatial Analysis of the Levelized Cost of Energy of Utility-Scale Wind and Solar Photovoltaics (PDF). National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Revised June 2020.
{{cite book}}: Check date values in:|year=(help) - ↑ "Global Solar Power Tracker". Global Energy Monitor. Retrieved 2024-05-01.
- ↑ "Global Wind Power Tracker". Global Energy Monitor. Retrieved 2024-05-01.
