Power Sector Transition in Northeast Brazil

Introduction

Northeast Brazil, comprising nine states (Alagoas, Bahia, Ceará, Maranhão, Paraiba, Pernambuco, Piaui, Rio Grande do Norte, and Sergipe), is a hotspot for wind and solar development. With a relatively young population of more than 54 million people, the region has the highest poverty rate across Brazil, though its per capita GDP and percentage of those seeking higher education has grown steadily in the past two decades. About 91% of Brazil's wind and 42% of national solar is generated in the Northeast, though residents only consume about 59% of what is produced. The Northeast region also has the most diverse energy mix in Brazil.

While Northeast Brazil currently lacks offshore wind projects that are either operating or under construction, the region hosts 113 GW of Announced and Pre-Construction capacity, with another in-development 113 GW of onshore wind and solar. Another 44.7 GW of operational onshore wind and solar currently contribute to Brazil's grid. Major objectives for Brazil are to not only supply power to population-dense areas but to create a parallel trade market to oil exports through large scale production of hydrogen through these renewable projects.

Brazil's electric grid emissions compared to other regions. From Bloomberg NEF.

Wind and solar are on the rise, but hydropower continues to play a massive role in domestic energy production in Northeast Brazil. However, chronically low rainfall over the past decade has led to significantly decreased amounts of power, especially during the dry season and droughts.

As of 2026, Brazil ranks first in Latin America for utility-scale solar and wind capacity, with nearly 61 GW installed. The country also leads in prospective utility-scale solar and wind, at 406.5 GW.

At the same time, fossil fuels still loom large as an economic driver in the country, with 9.8 GW of operational coal, oil, and gas currently generating power throughout the Northeast. The International Energy Agency (IEA) highlights the relevance of Brazil, which will become responsible for the production of about 50% of the world’s offshore oil in 2040. The national oil company, Petrobras, accounts for 73% of Brazil's oil and gas production. While most of this fossil fuel is used in the transportation sector, there are still 14,377 MW worth of gas plants operating in Brazil, and over 60,000 MW are planned, announced, or under construction.

Symbolic Importance

The Amazon rainforest, the so-called "lungs of the planet", resides largely in Brazil. Indigenous people have always been at the forefront of environmental protection in the country, and the group is feeling the greatest effects of expansion, pollution, and state violence. Under the Bolsonaro governmental regime, environmental protections were severely gutted, but the shift in governmental leadership under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, as well as dramatic changes in leadership from the state-owned energy giant Petrobras, signal a shift further toward renewables and forest protection. While some renewable energy projects like onshore wind and solar can encroach on vital ecosystems like the Amazon, offshore wind would largely avoid this symbol of not only Brazil but environmental conservation as a whole.

Brazil's impressive renewable potential, coupled with its existing strength in generating electricity from hydropower, wind, solar, and bioenergy, position the country as a leader in the transition to renewable energies.

National Climate Goal

Paris Agreement: Brazil's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) communicated by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was published on March 21, 2022. Brazil may face sanctions if it does not reach the following goals:

Target	2025	2030	2050
Baseline: compared to 2005 levels
GHG Emissions	reduce 37%	reduce 50%	Climate Neutrality

Deforestation: Another aspect to note for Brazil's overall carbon reduction strategy is deforestation. With the Amazon and other forests in the region being some of the world's greatest carbon sinks, rampant deforestation cuts away at the ability to sequester GHGs. While deforestation has decreased under the current political regime, in the decade between 2012 and 2021, Amazon deforestation has increased 185%, with a loss of 4,571 km2 in 2012 to 13,038 km2 in 2021.

According to Climate Transparency's 2020 Report: "Brazil needs to reduce its emissions to below 411 MtCO2 e by 2030 and to below 93 MtCO2 e by 2050 to be within its 1.5°C ‘fair-share’ compatible pathway. Under Brazil’s 2025 NDC target, its emissions would only be limited to 991 MtCO2 e (in 2025) and 890 MtCO2 e (in 2030). Due to the increase in deforestation emissions Brazil is not on track to meet its economy-wide NDC targets set in 2025 and 2030."

Current System Description

Current Power Capacity Mix

Operating capacity of Northeast Brazil, as of April 2026. All data pulled from Global Energy Monitor's power sector trackers.

Installed operating capacity of Brazil's nine Northeast states, captured in Global Energy Monitor's databases, as of April 2026:

State	Bioenergy Capacity (MW)	Coal Capacity (MW)	Hydropower Capacity (MW)	Oil & Gas Capacity (MW)	Solar Capacity (MW)	Wind Capacity (MW)	Total Provincial Capacity (MW)
Alagoas	187.0	0.0	3,162.0	0.0	68.1	0.0	3,417.1
Bahia	463.4	0.0	7,461.0	1,338.5	2,754.2	12,973.2	24,990.3
Ceará	0.0	1,085.0	0.0	588.0	1,947.0	2,700.3	6,320.3
Maranhão	259.2	360.0	1,087.0	2,237.0	58.5	426.0	4,427.7
Paraiba	30.0	0.0	0.0	516.6	723.7	1,107.8	2,378.1
Pernambuco	107.0	0.0	0.0	1,636.8	1,442.7	1,265.5	4,452.0
Piaui	0.0	0.0	237.0	0.0	2,433.3	4,396.4	7,066.7
Rio Grande do Norte	40.0	0.0	0.0	438.2	1,551.1	10,761.0	12,790.3
Sergipe	4.8	0.0	0.0	1,593.0	16.9	34.5	1,649.2
Total	1,091.4 MW	1,445.0 MW	11,947.0 MW	8,348.1 MW	10,995.5 MW	33,664.7 MW	67,491.7 MW

Utility-scale solar energy in Brazil increased 40.9% in 2021, while distributed generation from solar increased 84%.

Prospective Power Capacity

The sector as a whole: The first Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan (PDE 2031) predicts the growth prospects of the power sector. The share of renewable energy is expected to increase 39%, but the use of fossil gas is also expected to increase significantly to 34% by 2031. Solar power is expected to grow by 320% and wind power by 72% from 2021–2031.

Prospective Power Capacity by State in Northeast Brazil

Solar
	Announced (MW)	Pre-construction (MW)	Construction (MW)	Total (MW)
Alagoas	0.0	102.7	0.0	102.7
Bahia	7,000.0	22,943.8	719.7	30,663.5
Ceará	0.0	15,055.4	553.8	15,609.2
Maranhão	0.0	226.0	0.0	226.0
Paraiba	0.0	3,794.4	200.0	3,994.4
Pernambuco	0.0	3,961.4	169.8	4,131.2
Piaui	0.0	19,220.2	648.1	19,868.3
Rio Grande do Norte	0.0	9,712.3	571.5	10,283.8
Sergipe	0.0	1,332.4	0.0	1,332.4
Total	7,000.0	76,348.6	2,862.9	86,211.5
Total Wind (includes offshore)
	Announced (MW)	Pre-construction (MW)	Construction (MW)	Total (MW)
Alagoas	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Bahia	7,294.0	9,043.0	99.0	16,436.0
Ceará	66,367.0	2,850.6	0.0	69,217.6
Maranhão	6,168.0	130.2	0.0	6,298.2
Paraiba	0.0	1,988.0	771.9	2,759.9
Pernambuco	0.0	352.8	0.0	352.8
Piaui	15,030.0	2,102.8	0.0	17,132.8
Rio Grande do Norte	25,603.4	2,069.1	629.9	28,302.4
Sergipe	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total	120,462.4	18,536.5	1,500.8	140,499.7
Offshore Wind
	Announced (MW)	Pre-construction (MW)	Construction (MW)	Total (MW)
Alagoas	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Bahia	0.0	120.0	0.0	120.0
Ceará	66,367.0	132.3	0.0	66,499.3
Maranhão	6,168.0	0.0	0.0	6,168.0
Paraiba	0.0	139.5	0.0	139.5
Pernambuco	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Piaui	15,030.0	0.0	0.0	15,030.0
Rio Grande do Norte	25,446.0	22.0	0.0	25,468.0
Sergipe	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total	113,011.0	413.8	0.0	113,424.8
Oil & Gas
	Announced (MW)	Pre-construction (MW)	Construction (MW)	Total (MW)
Alagoas	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Bahia	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Ceará	7,059.0	0.0	0.0	7,059.0
Maranhão	1,894.2	0.0	0.0	1,894.2
Paraiba	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Pernambuco	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Piaui	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Rio Grande do Norte	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Sergipe	3,169.0	0.0	0.0	3,169.0
Total	12,122.2	0.0	0.0	12,122.2
Hydropower
	Announced (MW)	Pre-construction (MW)	Construction (MW)	Total (MW)
Alagoas	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Bahia	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Ceará	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Maranhão	247.0	0.0	0.0	247.0
Paraiba	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Pernambuco	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Piaui	63.0	0.0	0.0	63.0
Rio Grande do Norte	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Sergipe	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total	310.0	0.0	0.0	310.0

Renewables in Brazil

The National Energy Plan (PNE): PNE 2050, which builds upon PNE 2030, is the energy resources planning study by the Brazilian government. Carried out by the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), it supports the government's long-term strategy in the expansion of the energy sector. The PNE calls for 75% renewable energy (wind, solar, hydropower, and biomass) by 2050.

In 2024, Brazil's government released the Ten-year Energy Plan 2034 (PDE). PDE projects the rapid expansion of renewable generation. In particular, the Plan projects that 98.3% of residential energy will be generated by solar PV by 2034. In the same time, an estimated 49% of Brazil's national energy supply will come from renewables, classified as solar, wind, bioenergy, and hydropower. Meeting this demand will require an acceleration of mining critical minerals, namely lithium, cobalt, nickel, and copper, all of which Brazil has reserves.

Major Wind and Solar Projects

In-development capacity of Northeast Brazil, as of April 2026. All data is pulled from Global Energy Monitor's power sector trackers.

As of April 2026, there are more 2,300 wind and solar projects within Northeast Brazil, totaling 226.7 GW. The project pipeline eclipses operating wind and solar in the region (44.7 GW in total) and will contribute greatly to Brazil's renewable energy targets, as described below (see Governmental information). The region boasts 47 wind and solar projects (phases) greater than 1 GW in size. These projects are overwhelmingly wind generation and are summarized in the table below:

Generation Type	Project Name	Capacity (MW)	Status
utility-scale solar	CGN Quinto Bahia Green Hydrogen Hybrid solar farm	7000	announced
wind	CGN Quinto Bahia Green Hydrogen Hybrid wind farm	7000	announced
wind	Alpha Offshore wind farm	6000	announced
wind	Asa Branca III Offshore wind farm	4320	announced
wind	Asa Branca IV Offshore wind farm	4320	announced
wind	Costa Nordeste Offshore wind farm	3840	announced
wind	Sopros do Piauí 1 Offshore wind farm	3135	announced
wind	Projeto Galinhos Offshore wind farm	3010	announced
wind	Projeto Pecém Offshore wind farm	3010	announced
wind	Mar de Minas II Offshore wind farm	3000	announced
wind	H2GPCEA Offshore wind farm	3000	announced
wind	Jangada Offshore wind farm	3000	announced
wind	Araras Offshore wind farm	3000	announced
wind	Tatajuba Offshore wind farm	3000	announced
wind	Sopros do Rio Grande do Norte Offshore wind farm	3000	announced
wind	Sopros do Ceará Offshore wind farm	3000	announced
wind	Beta Offshore wind farm	3000	announced
wind	Ventos de São Francisco Offshore wind farm	2955	announced
wind	Ventos do Atalaia Offshore wind farm	2955	announced
wind	Araioses Offshore wind farm	2808	announced
wind	Ventos dos Bandeirantes Offshore wind farm	2748	announced
wind	Ventos do Delta Offshore wind farm	2640	announced
wind	Projeto Piauí Offshore wind farm	2520	announced
wind	Ventos Potiguar Offshore wind farm, Phase 1	2484	announced
wind	Prazeres Offshore wind farm	2394	announced
wind	Piedade Offshore wind farm	2268	announced
wind	Fortaleza Offshore wind farm	2160	announced
wind	Costa Branca II Offshore wind farm	2106	announced
wind	Complexo Offshore do Piauí Offshore wind farm	2016	announced
wind	Ventos Offshore do Pecém Offshore wind farm	2016	announced
wind	Maral Offshore wind farm, Phase 1	2012	announced
wind	Colibri Offshore wind farm	2010	announced
wind	Ibitucatu Offshore wind farm	2010	announced
wind	Mangará Offshore wind farm	2010	announced
wind	Ventos do Caiçara Offshore wind farm	1965	announced
wind	Alisios Potiguares Offshore wind farm, Phase 1	1845	announced
wind	Água Marinha Offshore wind farm	1700	announced
wind	Mares do Norte Offshore wind farm	1520	announced
wind	Mar de Minas I Offshore wind farm	1500	announced
wind	Costa Branca I Offshore wind farm	1458	announced
wind	Palmas Do Mar Offshore wind farm, Phase 1	1395	announced
wind	Dragão Do Mar Offshore wind farm, Phase 1	1216	announced
wind	Camocim Offshore wind farm, Phase 1	1200	announced
wind	Cattleya Offshore wind farm	1180	announced
wind	Asa Branca I Offshore wind farm, Phase 1	1080	announced
wind	Asa Branca II Offshore wind farm	1080	announced
wind	Ginga Offshore wind farm	1062	announced

Offshore wind locations as of July 2024 along Brazil's coast, according to the World Bank.

Wind and Solar Potential

Several estimations show the great potential of offshore wind in the country: in 2024, the World Bank estimated that there's up to 1.2 TW of offshore wind potential off the Atlantic Coast, with 480 GW of bottom fixed and 748 GW of floating projects. In 2020, Brazil’s Energy Research Office (Empresa de Pesquisa Energética, EPE), which aims to support the Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), estimated the potential of offshore wind in Brazil is approximately 700 GW.

Northeast Brazil, which contains about 53% of national wind resource and 90% of installed capacity, is one of three areas that are considered "most attractive" for onshore and offshore wind development due to their proximity to load centers. These areas will likely see overlaps in project areas, which will increase competition that might favor larger developers. The Northeast region of Brazil is also expected to have the cheapest costs due to its high wind speeds, which reach 7-10 m/s.

Brazilian PV power potential. Source: SolarGIS.

Maps from the Roadmap Eolica Offshore Brazil, showing windspeeds off the coast based on several data sets.

Potential impacts from renewable expansion

National Impacts

Much of the energy produced is going to be exported directly or indirectly as green hydrogen. Responding to this, just transition groups like Instituto Verdeluz have asserted: "We don’t think it is fair that Europe promotes its energy transition at the expense of the environment and local communities in developing countries, which is the case of Brazil, more specifically Ceará, since the renewable energies that are being installed here aim to produce green hydrogen to be sold in the international market, more specifically the European market. In low-income communities in the state of Ceará, people are being arrested for energy theft because they cannot afford to pay their electricity bills, since the energy transition in Europe has also increased the global price of energy, given the decrease in the supply of fossil fuels while demand has remained the same."

Impacts in Northeast Brazil

Existing social and economic problems, like land insecurity, community marginalization, and land-use conflicts, can be exacerbated by wind and solar leasing. Projects are often spearheaded by foreign and international organizations capable of exerting long-term local power for the duration of the lease. Acute impacts from climate change, and the need for sustainable solutions, have been used as justification for unjust land appropriation.

Residents have expressed worries about new projects in the Northeast, fearing that the pursuit of "clean power" will cause environmental degradation and greater emissions, much like projects built further in the Amazon. Plus, existing wind farms have often been constructed close to inhabited spaces, creating noise and light pollution as well as "wind turbine syndrome" (consisting of nausea, insomnia, and headaches). Projects sited offshore often overlap with critical fishing territories, harming local food and economic securityAccording to Renato Cunha, who serves on the Casa Fund Deliberative Council and works as an environmental management engineer, "[in almost all renewable energy projects,] it is not identified that there are communities there, there are people who live and work in that territory, that there are natural springs, biodiversity, and that in order to implement the project, this life present in the territory will be impacted. The first thing that needs to be done is to identify these impacts, and this has not been happening." Transparency and participation of local communities is paramount to a just transition.

Challenges to wind and solar development

There are several challenges hindering Brazil's offshore wind development. High upfront costs in a nascent market make investors cautious, so concessional financing (both public and private) would help ease these burdens. Access to financing will determine which scenario (Base, Intermediate, and Ambitious) the country is able to explore. Innovative approaches to procurement will be needed to ensure ratepayers do not bear too great of a burden. Grid congestion, as well as a lack of ports infrastructure capable of construction and marshaling, will be barriers to significant increases in capacity.

Fossil Fuel in Brazil

Fossil Fuel Resources and Retirement

Details of the fossil fuel resources in Brazil can be seen in Energy profile: Brazil and Brazil and coal.

Coal mines: While Brazil contains eight active mines, none of these are located in the Northeast region.

Oil and Gas: There are 47 oil and gas extraction projects that are operating, in development, or discovered in Northeast Brazil, with an additional seven that have been mothballed or are undergoing decommissioning. The vast majority of which are operated and at least partially owned by Petróleo Brasileiro SA.

Brazil is Latin America’s top oil producer. The country owns the largest recoverable ultra-deep oil reserves in the world. By 2030, Brazil is expected to become the world’s fifth largest crude oil exporter. Total oil supply is expected to grow by 1.2 mb/d to 4.2 mb/d in 2026, according to IEA forecasts. 96.7% of Brazil's oil production comes from offshore resources.

Brazil’s 2021 natural gas production amounted to 134 million cubic meters/day - up 5% from 2020. Associated gas currently represents approximately 80% of Brazil’s gas production, which is expected to reach its peak production of 183 million m³/day by 2028. (Note: much of this goes to transportation rather than electricity.)

Coal Plants: According to the PDE 2031, coal use in Brazil's power sector will decrease by about 33% over the next decade, from 9 TWh in 2021 to 6 TWh in 2031. While Brazil has made some progress in phasing out its existing coal power fleet and cancelling future projects, the country retains more than 3 GW of operating coal plants with uncertain retirement dates. The so-called Just Transition Law, approved in 2022, extended government subsidies and operating dates for some coal-fired power plants through at least 2040. Previous policies had called for subsidies to end by 2027, with the licenses for three coal plants in Santa Catarina state set to expire in 2025.

As documented in GEM's Global Integrated Power Tracker, the Northeast region has seen several coal retirements in the past decade, beginning with the 72-MW Charqueadas power station in 2016 and four units of the Presidente Médici Candiota power station (total capacity 446 MW) in 2017. Additionally, both units of the São Luis Alumar power station were cancelled in 2024, and another two units of Barcarena Alunorte power station were cancelled in 2025. Another 26.5 GW of coal and oil & gas have been cancelled.

Overview of current fossil fuel impacts

Petrobras:

• Petrobras controls the vast majority of the oil and gas sector in Brazil. Petrobras claims that they will eliminate routine flaring by 2030.
• The pre-salt fields off Brazil's southeastern coast, which account for 75% of national production, are expected to peak by 2030. Petrobras has recently been seeking drilling rights in the Equatorial Margin, a vast region off Brazil’s Northeast coast thought to hold at least 5 billion barrels of oil. In May 2023, Brazil’s national environmental authority IBAMA rejected Petrobras’s bid to drill in Block FZA-M-59 at the western edge of the Equatorial Margin, near the mouth of the Amazon River; however, in September 2023, IBAMA authorized new drilling in Block BM-POT-17 at the eastern edge of the Equatorial Margin, off the coast of Rio Grande do Norte state.

Oil drilling permits locations in Equatorial Margin, northern and north eastern coast of Brazil, map from ANP, The Brazilian Report, Sep 30 2023

• Petrobras 36 incident: In 2001, the world's largest oil platform sank following an explosion. The platform, also known as P-36 or "Spirit of Columbus", was located 130 kilometers off the coast of Brazil on the Roncador Oil Field. On March 15, 2001, two explosions went off on the platform. 11 people died, and the platform sank five days later.
• FCPA Violations: In September of 2018, Petrobras agreed to pay more than $850 million for violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act after allegedly facilitating bribes to Brazilian political leaders.

Oil spills: In 2019, a massive oil spill reached Brazil's northeastern State of Ceará. It was initially addressed by local residents of poor regions in Brazil without any training or equipment, with the government taking over a month to activate its official contingency plan. Ranking as the worst oil spill in Brazilian history, the >5,000-12,000 tonnes spill still has not had its origin confirmed. In early 2022, another oil spill brought approximately 8,000 liters of oil to the same State of Ceará, which is a biodiversity hotspot comprised of dunes, mangroves, and sandy and rocky beaches.

Coal: By 2017, 6,500 ha of abandoned areas were contaminated by heavy metals from coal mining activities. Research in 2020 conducted in 14 areas nearby abandoned mines in the main municipalities of the Santa Catarina carboniferous region showed that local residents generally lack information about heavy metal contamination in the food resources from the open pits. These effects, and the impacts they have had on food security, have been felt most directly by river and fishing communities located in the southern, southeastern, and northeastern coastal regions.

Employment

Employment by the Fossil Fuel Sector

Oil and Gas: From 2006 to 2012, the number of jobs in oil and gas expanded from 703,000 to 6,305,000; however, in 2014 that plummeted to 3,861,000 and has continued to drop to roughly half of the employees the sector had at its recent peak. This number may increase by up to 500,000 with offshore production systems scheduled to start operating by 2030.

Coal: The Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socio-Economic Studies (DIEESE) estimates that roughly 40,000 Brazilians derive direct or indirect employment from coal-related activities. DIESSE's 2022 report Os trabalhadores em extração e beneficiamento de carvão mineral em Santa Catarina e Rio Grande do Sul reports that 3,607 Brazilians were formally employed in the extraction and processing of mineral coal as of 2019. This represented a loss of 2,509 jobs (a 40% decrease) since 2006, when 6,116 workers were employed in the sector.

Evolution of the number of workers in coal extraction and processing mineral - Brazil and the South Region 2006-2019. Source: DIEESE(2022)

Prospective employment from Renewables

Job creation tends to vary by generation type and stage. One study by Scheifele et al. predicts that 1.3 jobs are created per megawatt of solar during construction and commissioning, though these jobs are negligible once operations and maintenance begin. Wind sees a similar pattern, with 16 jobs created (direct, indirect, induced) per megawatt during construction, though again, these jobs are largely non-existent during operations and maintenance. Workers tend to be brought in for many of these jobs given that they are often highly technical or specialized. According to the World Bank, installation and decommissioning, both of which are temporary, as well as operations, which requires intermediate expertise, create the greatest number of local jobs.

The table below highlights jobs characteristics for the wind industry in Northeast Brazil (recreated from a report by the World Bank):

Category	Job Creation	Job Location	Temporal Nature	Level of Specialization
Technology Development	Medium	From non-local to local	Stable	Very high
Installation and Decommissioning	High	From non-local to local	Temporary	High
Operation and Maintenance	Low	Local	Stable	Medium

Looking forward, according to the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) and the Global Wind Organization (GWO), 15,600 more people will need to be trained between 2022 and 2026 to meet installation demands of 15.6 GW onshore wind and 246 people will be trained for the 11MW offshore wind for that time frame. Weakening onshore wind construction is expected to drive down the number of workers, but then as offshore wind starts to be installed it will pick back up. In 2023 to 2027, the people needed to be trained for the onshore wind construction will be 12,308 to meet the installation demand of 16GW.

The most ambitious scenario outlined in the World Bank's 2024 report, Scenarios for Offshore Wind Development in Brazil, would generate 516,000 FTE jobs by 2050 with a National Gross Value Add of USD $168 billion.

Local entities are supporting wind and solar workforce development efforts. In Ceará, National Industrial Learning Services (SENAI) provides wind and solar technician training.

Employment by other energy types

Hydropower: 176,860 jobs. In 2023, the number increased to 194,000 according to IRENA's Renewable Energy and Jobs Annual Review 2023.

Liquid biofuels: IRENA estimates that bioethanol resulted in about 378,100 jobs in 2024. The majority of these jobs reside in sugarcane agriculture.

Land availability

Across Brazil, competition for land persists, and residents have expressed concerns about land disposession and deforestation in pursuit of clean energy goals (see Potential impacts from renewable expansion). However, studies suggest that Brazil's renewable capacity can be successfully built out while avoiding development of "conservation-priority" lands, which would only increase energy costs by about 4% and would enable sequestration of an additional 770 million tons of CO2 annually.

Northeast Brazil is ripe for offshore wind development. The country has about 8,000 kilometers of coastline, of which about half resides along Northeast states, and a wide continental shelf enables installation of fixed-bottom wind turbines. Plus, Law no. 15.097/2025 (which builds upon PL no. 576/2021) creates a legal framework for maritime "land" use while establishing procedures, points in which the National Government must participate, and establishes criteria for offshore studies, among other provisions. Ultimate, the Law aims to increase investor participation by creating a stable and predictable ecosystem for energy development.

Offshore wind project areas overlap with several other uses and and areas of biodiversity. Increased boat traffic may create tensions with fishers as well as create stress for marine birds, mammals, and reptiles. Higher ambition offshore wind planning scenarios tend to have higher social and environmental risks.

Civil Society Engagement

Instituto Verdeluz: A combination of grassroots collective and NGO, composed mainly of women and traditional communities. This group works with people (fishing communities especially) impacted by offshore wind projects, as well as working to help low-income communities access energy.

Central Única dos Trabalhadores /  CUT Brasil: CUT is developing research to understand how the energy transition occurs in the country and how it impacts the working class, carrying out training activities to engage unionists in this agenda, developing educational and communication materials to expand the reach and understanding from our perspective, and acting together with national and international allies to strengthen the guarantee of the just transition.

Fundo Casa Socioambiental: Grantmaking organization that works closely with communities to untangle socioeconomic challenges and advance sustainable activities.

Coletivo Assessoria Cirandas: Advocates for dismantling of racial and social inequities in Brazil. With respect to renewables, the organization defends the rights of Indigenous communities and collects and protects ancestral knowledge.

Centro Brasil no Clima: A Brazil-based think tank that works to advance climate solutions through information sharing, engaging civil society, and strategic activities.

Other grassroots and non-profit groups working on environmental and social impacts from offshore wind development in Brazil include but are not limited to:

- Instituto E+ Transição Energética.

- World Wildlife Fund.

- Grupo de Análise de Geopolítica Energética.

Permitting

For projects located offshore, across state borders, within federally protected areas, or military sites, licensing falls under the jurisdiction of the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources. Similarly, renewable energy projects that cross municipal boundaries or fall within state protected areas are licensed by the State Environmental Protection Agency, whereas Local Environmental Agencies oversee development that falls entirely within their domain.

Wind, solar, and biomass projects are spearheaded by private developers approaching the Brazilian government, whereas hydropower generation is auctioned off via government-run tender. Prospective developers must join the Brazilian Chamber of Electric Energy Commercialization in order to sell the electricity generated. Several licenses are required:

• Preliminary environmental license (Licença Ambiental de Instalação): Nationally, this license is the primary environmental requirement as it attests project viability, approves location and design, and provides guidance for subsequent permitting phases. Environmental Impact Assessments are required before this license is approved.
• Installation and construction license
• Environmental operation license (Licença Ambiental de Operação)
• License for potentially polluting activities
• Request for transmission and distribution connection

Offshore wind projects of the scale Brazil aims to build will require an Environmental Impact Study (EIS). The scope of each EIS needs to include the impacts from the wind-energy generating units; the submarine grid connector; the maritime substation; the power transmission grid, including its submarine and underground terrestrial stretch, as well as the air segment up to the connection with the Sistema Interligado Nacional (National Interconnected System or SIN); the terrestrial substation and the exclusive support areas for the work. Environmental Impact Assessments are generally submitted alongside a developer's environmental license application, and depending on the potential impact of the project, a developer may need to conduct a more thorough Environmental Impact Study before licenses are issued.

An EIS needs to include information on potential impacts on humans and ecosystems from the inputs (solid and handled materials), wastes and effluents, noise, vibration, changes in wind patterns due to turbines, invasive species introduction, impacts on birds and bats due to the presence of turbine blades, artificial luminosity, decommissioning plans, and exclusion zones for other maritime activities (navigation, fishing, tourism, gas exploration, etc). Additionally, sites of historical or cultural significance need to be considered.

Assessments are required before environmental, transmission, and distribution licenses are administered, and simplified processes exist for small- and medium-scale projects. Environmental licensing has been a massive obstacle for renewable energy developers. Following a 2014 energy auction, 73% of projects did not qualify due to challenges around environmental licenses, followed by 54 disqualifications in 2015.

Brazil's licensing regime has been described as "incoherent" and hinders deployment of low-carbon energy, namely wind and hydropower. The licensing process suffers from differing nomenclature state-to-state, a lack of a framework for leasing seabed rights, legal uncertainty, difficulty in planning, insufficient staffing and reviews from the regulators, and low-quality Environmental Impact Assessments. Wind power specifically has high capital and managerial requirements. Public participation is a key part of the regulatory process, though local pushback has delayed implementation.

The Brazilian House of Representatives approved an offshore wind regulatory framework in November 2023, though amendments related to natural gas generation slowed the discussion in the Senate in August 2024. As of October 2024, this framework has yet to be finalized.

Governmental information

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva began his third term with an inauguration speech that promised zero deforestation in the Amazon and 100% renewable electricity. Upon taking office, Lula's administration announced significant changes to the structure of the Ministry of the Environment. The Ministry will now include a revived Secretariat for Climate Change, a newly-created Department for the Protection of Animal Rights, a Secretariat of Bioeconomy, an Extraordinary Secretariat for the Control of Deforestation, and a new National Climate Security Authority. Federal agencies, including the Brazilian Forest Service and the National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency, return to being under Ministry control. To oversee and support environmental policy, the administration plans to create a Climate Change Council, headed by Lula himself, with the participation of all government ministries.

Federal ministries and state-level decision-makers

The Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (National Electric Energy Agency, ANEEL) serves as the primary body in Brazil determining regulations for the generation, transmission, distribution, and commercialization of electricity. One challenge identified by OECD is the changing or unclear role that ANEEL may have in regulating renewables, distributed generation, and an increasingly liberalized energy market. While ANEEL has established procedures for garnering public feedback, participation has been lacking. ANEEL's net metering policy allows for a maximum capacity of 5 MW for solar and other qualified renewable energy sources.

Sitting underneath ANEEL, the Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico (ONS) coordinates and manages the operations of electrical power generation and transmission facilities connected to the national grid. ONS is also in charge of planning for isolated systems throughout the country. Ultimately, ONS's goals are to promote and optimize the electrical and energetic system of Brazil while trying to reduce cost and maximize reliability and technical standards.

Established in 1992, the Ministry of Environment manages six priority areas: 1) national policies for environment and water sources, 2) policies for preserving, conserving, and sustainably using environmental resources, 3) proposing mechanisms and activities that improve environmental quality and sustainability, 4) crafting policies that integrate environmental protections into production and industry, 5) policies and programs to preserve the Amazon, and 6) zoning with the nexus of environment and economic development in mind.

In contrast, the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) is tasked with nine commitments: 1) improving data related to the mineral economy, 2) responsible growth, 3) expanding geological expertise, 4) growing mining efforts, 5) attracting foreign and domestic investment, 6) governing mining and energy industries, 7) operating with efficiency and accountability, 8) combating illegal and illicit practices, and 9) bringing mining further into society. According to the Ministry, Brazil mines for gold, nuclear ore, niobium, and lithium. Research support is provided to MME by the Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (Energy Research Office, EPE), specifically related to electricity, oil, natural gas and derivative products, and bioenergy.

Brazil's research office, Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE), provides studies and analysis related to energy planning, including electricity, oil and gas, and biofuels. Areas of expertise include electricity, statistics, energy economics, and environmental planning. Brazilian energy policy is rooted in EPE's work, and as such, EPE collaborates regularly with many other agencies including MME and ANEEL.

Governors in Brazil

Governors hold significant power in Brazil. Unlike many other countries, Brazilian governors are able to form Congressional delegations (bancadas dos governadores), and they can provide a check on presidential power. Governors of Northeast Brazil are listed below (current as of April 2026):

State	Governor	Party affiliation
Alagoas	Paulo Dantas	Brazilian Democratic Movement
Bahia	Jerônimo Rodrigues	Workers' Party
Ceará	Elmano de Freitas	Workers' Party
Maranhão	Carlos Brandão	Independent
Paraíba	João Azevêdo	Brazilian Socialist Party
Pernambuco	Raquel Lyra	Social Democratic Party
Piauí	Rafael Fonteles	Workers' Party
Rio Grande do Norte	Fátima Bezerra	Workers' Party
Sergipe	Fábio Mitidieri	Social Democratic Party

Related policies or official papers

Renewable energy development has been influenced by several national policies, the most relevant of which is listed below:

• National Adaptation Plan (NAP) from 2016 includes 55 types of policies, plans, and programs aimed at reducing climate risks and considering the effects of climate change on humans, infrastructure, and the natural world.
• PROINFA, (Program for Incentives to Alternative Energy Sources) provided under Decree No 5,025 in 2004, was created to increase the participation of wind, biomass, and small hydroelectric plants (PCH) in Brazil’s national interconnected transmission system, leading to tax benefits for renewable energies. Notably, PROINFA allows for long-term contracting of alternative energy generation.
• Competitive auctions and transparent contracting mechanisms were secured into law with the passage of Law 10,848/2004.
• Under ICMS Agreement No 101, certain wind and solar equipment was tax-exempt from 1997-2021.
• Federal taxes are also suspended or levied on the import and sale of equipment, machines, and services for infrastructure projects through the Special Regime of Tax Exemption for Infrastructure Development.

Additionally, offshore energy development, of which Northeast Brazil has a robust project pipeline, is impacted by three key pieces of legislation:

• In January 2022, the Federal Decree no. 10,946/2022 was published, establishing regulations and guidelines for the use of maritime space and the exploitation of natural resources. The decree came into force in June 2022 to officially regulate the development of offshore energy projects.
• Another regulation approved in 2022 is Bill No. 576/2021. This bill outlines regulations for the exploration of marine space, including the procedures and granting processes for offshore wind projects.
• Law no. 15.097/2025, which builds upon Bil No. 576/2021, establishes more robust procedures for offshore wind development along Brazil's coast. Specifically, it articulates the points in which government input is required, creates criteria for offshore energy studies, and aims to encourage greater private investment in a more predictable and stable regulatory environment.

Transmission

Despite the amount of wind and solar that the Northeast is generating, insufficient transmission planning has led to curtailment to ensure reliability. A 2023 power outage in Brazil's northeast has led to the National Electric System Operator (ONS) to manage the grid with greater caution, often resulting in more curtailments. Losses are estimated to be 700 million reais for wind (between August 2023 and August 2024) and 50 million reais for solar (between March and July 2024). Curtailments and grid instability are particularly pervasive in Northern and Northeastern Brazil, though recent legislation (Provisional Measure 1304 of 2025) establishes a compensation mechanism and clear protocols for curtailments, as well as encourages grid and transmission investments.

Current transmission resources

Brazil is a regional leader with respect to grid investments with one auction seeing record bids totaling USD$8 billion for 10,500 kilometers of transmission infrastructure. China State Grid was the largest auction winner with a bid of USD$3.6 billion to construct 1,513 kilometers of transmission lines.

Planned and tendered projects with an impact on the evolution of interconnection capacity, until December 2026 (Via MME 2031 Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan).

Transmission: Brazil has a country-wide interconnected grid of over 100,000 miles of high voltage transmission lines. By 2030, an additional 25,000 miles will expand the grid significantly.

Distribution: Brazil has 102 power distribution companies. Private firms owned by foreign investors prevail in this segment. Large international companies operating in this market include Spanish Ibedrola and Italian ENEL.

International connections: The transmission system responsible for the flow of energy from HPP Itaipu (the major transmission system shared by Brazil and Paraguay) is composed of three transmission lines of alternating current at 765 kV, one line of alternating current at 525 kV, and by two high voltage direct current bipoles (HVDC), in ± 600 kV. Brazil also has electrical interconnections with Argentina, Uruguay, and Venezuela. Additionally, Fortaleza, Ceará's capitol city, has 15 international submarine cables connected to its shores.

Planned interconnections: Listed in the table included in this section, there are 22 major transmission interconnections that should come online by 2026 or 2027.

New transmission needed for renewables

Studies estimate that Brazil's current transmission capacity must double to account for new wind and solar projects in the Northeast.

In March 2026, ANEEL, Brazil's electricity regulatory agency, approved USD $108 billion in funds in support of approximately 100 priority upgrades, primarily replacing transformers, modernizing switchgear and reactors, and improving monitoring and control systems. These upgrades will address increasing demand, effective and efficient renewable integration, and increased variability in rainfall, which impacts hydropower generation.

ANEEL is also introducing voluntary programs for contract termination in order to free up grid capacity by addressing oversupply of licensed generation projects. Public Consultation No. 007/2026 would allow ANEEL to revoke generation concessions and terminate contracts of non-viable projects with grid capacity already allocated. This voluntary program would reimburse performance guarantees and exempt participants from inspection fines and termination charges. In doing this, ANEEL aims to reduce regulatory burden and allow new, more viable projects to connect.

While Brazil's transmission and port systems are robust onshore, a large system of converters and submarine cables would be needed to connect new offshore projects to that grid. Brazilian government is investing $9.5 billion in new transmission lines.

The EPE's Roadmap Eólica Offshore Brasil suggests that new forms of transmission by a hybrid model using AC and DC technologies, or Low Frequency AC technology could be used, which would allow line lengths of around 200 km (longer than AC lines at 60 Hz). These technologies have not been implemented with wind before.

The Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL) requires offshore wind projects to comply with several requirements, including Fault Ride Through (FRT), frequency support (response to variations in the grid frequency), voltage support and reactive power (minimum and maximum amount of energy generated and consumed), and active power control and remote operation.

Social and environmental impacts of new transmission

Transmission lines are often built along existing roads and sometimes need to cross indigenous land. The disruption to wild flora and fauna causes tribes to have less access to food resources, and power lines may not provide impacted tribes with energy.

Ownership

Major owners of prospective offshore winds projects

According to the applications received from IBAMA and GEM's Global Integrated Power Tracker, Chinese company Shizen Energy Group, Shell Wind Energy INC, and Ventos do Atlântico joined by EDP Renováveis Brasil SA and Engie Brasil Energia SA are the top owners of offshore wind capacities in the pipeline.

Major wind and solar owners of Northeast Brazil, according to Global Energy Monitor's Integrated Power Tracker.

Ventos do Atlântico, changed name to Ocean Winds Brazil now, is the offshore wind joint-venture between EDPR and ENGIE. The company plans to construct the Ventos Do Sul offshore wind farm. Ocean Winds Brazil is targeting offshore wind capacities through undergoing authorizations at IBAMA, for projects located in Rio de Janeiro, Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte, and Rio Grande do Sul states. It is already licensed to build Ventos Do Sul.

Petrobras is also leaning into the offshore wind industry, implementing the planning and logistics of large offshore works, so their expertise may be critical to the success of the first offshore projects. Petrobras and Equinor intend to build up to 14.5 GW across 7 offshore wind projects.

Major owners of current fossil capacity

Petrobras, a state-owned Brazilian corporation, is the 65th-largest public company in the world. It is responsible for 93% of Brazil's oil and gas production and owns 98% of the country's refineries.

Until the passage of Law N.9.478 in 1997, Petrobras had a monopoly on oil in Brazil. Petrobras continues to control oil and energy assets in 16 countries worldwide. The industry as a whole in Brazil, in the medium- to long-term, has plans to drill 300 offshore wells, order over 30 new production units, and build 600 km (373 miles) of offshore gas pipelines.

Supply Chain

One of the major hurdles Brazil will have to overcome to build massive amounts of offshore wind is a limited supply of parts. Spare manufacturing capacity in the global wind industry is likely to disappear by 2026, according to the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC). while Brazil has a robust supply chain for onshore wind, offshore wind will present significant manufacturing and ports constraints unless significant investments are made.

In contrast, GWEC vice chair Elbia Gannoum has asserted that there is no need to import equipment from China or elsewhere, stating, "[Brazil's] wind power is the result of the most successful industrial policy the country has made – when compared to industry as a whole, not just energy. This is because, from 2013 to 2016, BNDES [the National Bank for Economic and Social Development], our development bank and financier of the sector, imposed conditions of a high degree of localization. Today 80% of turbines are manufactured in Brazil."

Brazil's domestic supply chain for the energy transition has grown and improved in recent years, driven in part by BNDES' strategic investments across the country. The International Renewable Energy Agency credits BNDES with attracting wind turbine manufacturers and promoting domestic production which, in turn, reduces investor risk, creates jobs, supports timely project delivery, and encourages innovation.

Finance

Brazil's top clean energy finance arrangers, 2011-20. From Bloomberg NEF.

Globally, the cost of capital has increased which has made local currency financing more expensive. This is particularly evident in Brazil and other emerging economies where local currency financing is more prevalent.

According to the World Bank's Country Director for Brazil, Johannes Zutt, "Climate shocks could push between 800,000 and 3,000,000 Brazilians into extreme poverty as soon as 2030. It is crucial that Brazil accelerate investments towards a resilient and low carbon growth pathway. To take full advantage of its potential, Brazil would need net investments of 0.8 percent of its annual GDP each year between now and 2030."

Brazil's government currently has no plans to offer financial subsidies to encourage the development of offshore wind installations. Instead, it is relying on the continued fall of technology costs to make offshore wind competitive against the rest of the energy sector. However, the Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Economico e Social (BNDES) distributed nearly $20 billion to clean energy from 2011-2020 (excluding large hydro) primarily through term loans.

In addition to being a turbine manufacturer, China is expected to play a large role in financing offshore wind in Brazil. China owns a large number of companies in Brazil.

Existing and potential finance for renewable energy development

Approximately USD $21 billion in financing has been allocated for Brazilian ports development with the intention of advancing the nation's renewable hydrogen production. This support is overwhelmingly concentrated in the Northeast, namely Ceara and Pernambuco. Additionally, the Inter-American Development Bank estimates that more than USD $4 billion will be invested in Brazil's grid by 2030, with an additional USD $3.5 billion invested between 2031 and 2035.

Large wind and solar projects tend to receive special tax breaks to support their deployment. The Special Infrasturucture Development Incentive Regime, or REIDI, specifically exempts infrastructural projects from PIS (Program for Special Integration) and COFINS (Contribution for Social Security Financing) taxes, and both solar and wind projects have met the requirements necessary to receive this incentive. Plus, renewable energy project equipment is sometimes exempt from ICMS (Imposto sobre a Circulação de Mercadorias e Prestação de Serviços) taxes, though this varies by state.

Public entities, as exemplified in the figure above, are a significant source of local financing. For example, BNDES administers the Climate Fund, which provides low-interest loans for renewable and energy efficiency projects across Brazil. Similarly, Banco do Nordeste funds the FNE Sol program which provides lines of credit to enable rural households and businesses to install microgeneration and distributed solar, and the Fundo Constitucional de Financiamento do Nordeste provides special support, credit lines, and terms for individual citizens and small businesses.

Wind: Ocean Winds (OW; a 50-50 joint-venture of EDPR and ENGIE), launched OW Brasil in June of 2022, is seeking approval to build 5 new offshore wind projects totaling 15 GW, which includes the Ventos Do Sul offshore wind farm. ENGIE is the second largest private-sector company in Brazil, and EDPR has 795 MW of onshore wind and solar in the country already.

Solar: Investments in approved utility-scale solar energy projects are over $20 billion. An additional $1 billion has been invested in solar distributed generation since 2012, this amount is expected to increase exponentially in the next several years.

Distribution: Brazil has 102 power distribution companies. Private firms owned by foreign investors prevail in this segment. Large international companies operating in this market include Spanish Ibedrola and Italian ENEL. This segment sees annual investment of around $2.2 billion per year, 69% of which is in expansion, 19% in improvement and 12% in renewal of distribution networks.

Finance and incentives for fossil fuels

Oil and Gas: Petrobras's current business plan (2022-2026) calls for an investment of $68 billion of which 84% would be made in exploration and production (E&P) activities. In the long term, Petrobras plans to retain five of its refineries and invest $3.7 billion in feature projects. While the company does invest in renewables to a degree, it has downsized its portfolio in recent years. The company's former CEO, Roberto Castello Branco, suggested in 2019 that renewables are a loss, and oil companies only invest in that sector for marketing purposes. In 2022, Jean Paul Prates, a former senator, took over that position and called for increased investment in renewables.

Brazil´s 2021-2030 Energy Expansion Plan (PDE) forecasts that oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) investments will range from US$ 415 billion to US$ 454 billion during this period. With this investment, it is expected that an overall 38 offshore production platforms from Petrobras, Karoon Energy, Shell, Equinor, and other oil companies will enter operation in this timeframe.

Coal: Under former president Bolsonaro, the Mines and Energy Ministry has published a “programme for the sustainable use of national mineral coal”, which aims to leverage $3.9 billion in investment in coal over the next decade.

Articles and resources

Portal Energético para América Latina

Related GEM.wiki articles

Brazil and coal

pages in Spanish

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