Brunei and fossil gas
Brunei is a small country with an economy based very heavily on exports of oil and natural gas. About 60% of its GDP comes from natural gas and crude oil exports. Brunei's GDP growth rate is forecasted between 2-3.5% annually through 2025.
Since Brunei's economy is reliant on revenues from oil and LNG exports, there have been efforts to plan out ways to diversify the economy, as outlined in the Energy Department's 2014 White Paper. Key areas of focus include halal manufacturing, information technology, business services, tourism, and downstream oil and gas sectors.
Between 2010-2017, total electricity demand grew at 0.7% per year, from 3,000.5 GWh (258 ktoe) to 3,140.1 GWh (270 ktoe). In APEC's Energy and Demand Outlook 7th Edition report, total electricity generation reaches 5.6 TWh in 2050, up from 4.3 TWh in 2016, under the "Business as Usual Case."
Brunei Shell Petroleum is the largest oil producer in Brunei and the backbone of the economy, contributing 90% to Brunei's oil and gas revenues. Petroleum Brunei is the state-owned national company. TOTAL, which operates in the oil and gas fields, also has a significant stake in Brunei's oil and gas industry. 
In April 2020, the Brunei government formed Petroleum Authority which will regulate the country's oil and gas industry. Petroleum Authority will undertake regulation and monitoring of operations and infrastructure in the upstream, midstream, and downstream oil and gas sector.
Natural Gas Demand
Power generation is supplied almost entirely by natural gas, with 98% of electricity using gas and the remaining supplied from diesel and solar PV.
Key Demand Drivers
In a 2014 white paper, one of the three strategic goals set by the Energy Department was to strengthen and grow oil and gas upstream/downstream activity in order to diversify Brunei's economy.
Increasing domestic demand for natural gas from the power and petrochemical sectors could likely shift some of the country's gas production from LNG exports to domestic consumption needs.
Projection of Demand Growth
In APEC's Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 7th Edition "Business as Usual (BAU)" case, Brunei's natural gas installed capacity in 2016 is 1,010 MW and forecasted at 1,358 MW in 2050. Electricity generation using natural gas in the BAU case is 4,257 GWh in 2016 and forecasted at 4,363 GWh in 2050.
Natural gas final energy demand is 0.666 bcm in 2016 and forecasted at 0.777 bcm in 2050. Natural gas use for electricity/heat generation in 2016 is 1.21 bcm and forecasted at 0.79 bcm by 2050 in the BAU case. More efficient power generation is used in the APEC forecast, which assumes the 45% efficiency target by 2020 outlined in the 2014 white paper. 
Natural Gas Supply
As of 2019, Brunei has 8.3 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves. Total gas production in Brunei as of 2019, was 13.0 bcm, of which 8.8 bcm was exported as LNG (5.9 bcm to Japan, 0.8 bcm to China, 1.0 bcm to Malaysia, 0.8 bcm to South Korea, and 0.3 to Thailand).
At current production levels, Brunei's proved gas reserves have 22 years of production as of 2017.
Potential New Gas Sources
In 2017, BSP made the largest onshore oil and gas discovery in decades with its Layang-Layang well in the Seria field. This discovery has the potential to generate revenue equivalent to 15% of the country's budget.
In 2019, Brunei announced financing for the development of oil and gas fields as it seeks to increase petroleum production by 30 percent by 2025. As part of this exploration effort, the minister announced they will start drilling five new exploration wells.
In 2010, an offshore agreement with Malaysia was signed to allow Brunei to explore deepwater areas in the Baram Delta. In February 2020, Malaysia revoked a cross-border agreement with Brunei to jointly develop off-shore fields due to issues with the proposed revenue sharing split. PetroleumBrunei had been seeking to develop a cluster of gas fields with Petronas, the Malaysian gas company, in order to supply new feedstock to the Brunei LNG plant. 
Current Gas Supply Projects
Downstream activity has historically centered around methanol production. In an effort to diversify its economy, Brunei is pushing for developments in the petrochemical industry.
Brunei Fertilizer Industries (BFI), a state-owned company, is expected to start commercial production of its $1.8 billion plant at Sungai Liang Industrial Park in the second quarter of 2021. The plant will be one of the largest fertilizer plants in Southeast Asia and BFI plans to export to the agriculture industry.
Henghi Industries is also constructing Phase 2 of its Pulau Muara Besar Refinery & Petrochemical Complex, a $12 billion project expected to be complete in 2022.
Proposed Gas Supply Projects
Projection of Gas Production
In APEC's Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 7th Edition, Brunei's natural gas production is expected to drop to 7.4 bcm, or 6.7 mtoe, by 2050.
Articles and Resources
Related GEM.wiki articles
- "EIA - Brunei Overview". EIA. Retrieved January 25, 2021.
- "Brunei Darussalam - gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate 2015-2025". Statista. Retrieved 2021-01-25.
- "Brunei Darussalam Energy White Paper 2014" (PDF). Energy Department Prime Minister's Office Brunei Darussalam.
- ERIA, BNERI and Chiyoda Corporation (2020), ‘Energy Supply and Demand situation in Brunei Darussalam’, in Brunei Darussalam: Shifting to Hydrogen Society. ERIA Research Project Report FY2020 no.04, Jakarta: ERIA, pp.1-5.
- "APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook (7th Edition) - Volume II". APEC. Retrieved 2021-01-25.
- Commission, Australian Trade. "Oil and gas to Brunei". www.austrade.gov.au. Retrieved 2021-02-02.
- Wong, Aaron (2020-04-22). "Brunei forms Petroleum Authority to regulate oil and gas industry". Biz Brunei. Retrieved 2021-02-02.
- "BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2020" (PDF). Retrieved January 22, 2021.
- "Brunei makes 1st big onshore oil discover in 37 years - Xinhua | English.news.cn". www.xinhuanet.com. Retrieved 2021-02-02.
- "Brunei earmarks 1.2 bln USD for oil, gas exploration - Xinhua | English.news.cn". www.xinhuanet.com. Retrieved 2021-01-22.
- Evans, Damon (2020-02-28). "Exclusive: Shell-Total deal delayed by Malaysia-Brunei spat - News for the Oil and Gas Sector". Energy Voice. Retrieved 2021-01-25.
- Wong, Aaron (2020-09-14). "Brunei Fertilizer Industries to begin production May 2021, create 500 jobs". Biz Brunei. Retrieved 2021-02-02.
- "10 Oil & Gas projects to watch in SE Asia right now". Fircroft. Retrieved 2021-02-02.