Myanmar and fossil gas
Myanmar has seen sustained economic growth with annual GDP growth rate of 5-7%[1] since the start of its economic reform in 2011[2], which has corresponded to an increased demand for energy and natural gas. However, Myanmar has one of the lowest electrification rates in Southeast Asia, with only 50% of the population having access to the grid.[3] The government has proposed increasing electrification to 100 percent of households by 2030.
Myanmar had 8,118 MW of installed capacity in 2020 and this is forecasted to grow to 10,379 MW by 2025 and triple to 23,594 MW by 2030.[4]
The power generation mix in Myanmar is dominated by hydroelectric and supplemented by natural gas fired power plants that operate primarily during the dry season. Due the to rapid growth in electricity demand and variability in hydro output, Myanmar has been experiencing significant power shortages.[6]
Electricity Demand
As Myanmar continues its economic growth, demand for energy has started to outpace supply. The World Bank estimates that energy consumption will grow at annual rate of 11% until 2030. Peak demand is expected to reach 8.6 GW by 2025 and 12.6 GW by 2030. This demand increase will require 5 GW of generation capacity to be added by 2025. In June 2019, the World Bank estimated that Myanmar needs to double its investment in generation capacity from its historical level to meet this demand. [7]
Electricity demand in 2018 was 23,812 GWh[8] and is forecasted to reach 57,654 GWh in 2030 according to the 2015 Myanmar Master Energy Plan.[9]
Natural Gas Demand
Key Demand Drivers
The power sector is the key driver of gas demand in Myanmar, with over 70% of domestic gas consumption used in power generation.[5] Natural gas demand in Myanmar has increased 1.4 times since 2011 which has primarily been driven by power generation. [10]
Compressed natural gas is used in the transportation sector as fuel but accounts for a small percentage of demand.
Industrial sector gas demand is very limited and there is no residential demand for natural gas as of 2017.[10]
Projection of Demand Growth
according to Myanmar's 2017 Natural Gas Master Plan, natural gas demand is forecasted to grow from 457 mmcfd, or 4.72 bcm, in 2017 to 1,142 mmcfd, or 11.8 bcm, in 2040.[10] While demand from the power sector is projected to dominate growth, demand from the industrial sector and residential sector are forecasted to grow significantly from their current 2017 levels.[10]
LNG-fired generation is forecasted to grow to around 25% (or 5 GW) of the capacity mix, which would require completion of all of the proposed LNG developments plus an additional capacity of 2 GW from not-yet-defined projects.[5]
Industrial demand for gas will be concentrated in the Yangon and Mandalay regions. Natural gas use is projected to increase in the Thilawah Special Economic Zone (SEZ) due to an increase in electricity usage for manufacturing factories. Since natural gas infrastructure in the Yangon region has already been established, it is estimated that an additional investment of $3.5 million to meet the added industrial demand. However, in the Mandalay region, a pipeline network of more than 40km will be needed in order to meet forecasted industrial gas demand growth. The required total investment to develop industrial demand in the Mandalay region is estimated at $24.5 million.[10]
Natural Gas Supply
As of 2019, Myanmar has 41.3 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves. Total gas production in Myanmar as of 2019, was 17.1 bcm. Pipeline exports in 2019 totalled 11.2 bcm, with 4.4 bcm to China and 7.1 bcm to Thailand. [11]
As of 2020, approximately one-third of total gas production is used domestically, while the rest is exported mainly to Thailand and some to China. [5] These exports to China and Thailand are under long-term contracts entered into in the 1990s when there was a surplus of offshore production compared to domestic demand. Gas production from existing gas fields is expected to decline over the next decade.[12]
Potential New Gas Sources
In mid-2020, Posco International discovered a new gas field with exploration well Mahar-1 in offshore Block A-3, which has an estimated 660 billion cubic feet of gas[13] and gas flow estimated at 38 mmscf/d.[14]
The Shwe Yee Htun gas field, which contain the A-6 and AD-1 blocks, are currently under exploration. Block A-6 is estimated to hold up to 3 trillion cubic feet of gas and first gas is scheduled for 2023. Myanmar also has 56 open onshore/offshore blocks that have not yet been explored or offered to investors yet.[15]
In 2013, PTTEP made a discovery in the offshore block M-3 in Myanmar.[16] The estimated gas flow rate from the wells was 34.5 mmscf/d.[17]
Current Gas Supply Projects
Myanmar's largest gas field is the offshore Yadana gas field, with a production capacity of 850 mmscf/d, followed by the Yetagun gas field, with a production capacity of 200 mmscf/d.[5] Approximately 75% of its output is exported to Thailand.[15]
Additional gas fields currently in production are the Shwe (production capacity of 300 mmscf/d) and Zawtika gas fields (production capacity of 200 mmscf/d).[5] Gas production from the Yadana and Zawtika fields make up approximately 65% of domestic gas production.[15]
The Schwe gas field is being developed in three phases. First gas from phase one was achieved in 2013 and phase two and three are currently under development. The Schwe gas project has received a lot of criticism and opposition due to environmental impact and not allocating sufficient gas for domestic use.[18]
Proposed Gas Supply Projects
In order to meet increasing energy demand, Myanmar has been considering LNG imports over the medium to long term. LNG import projects have been proposed since the early 2010s but delays in securing a bankable power purchase agreement for the offtake of electricity have delayed any progress.[5]
In June 2019, the Ministry of Electricity and Energy issued a tender for five emergency power projects totaling 1,040 MW, in order to alleviate power shortages. Two plants would use gas supplied by the government and three larger projects would use imported LNG. [19] In July 2019, a combination of VPower and CNTIC were awarded the project tenders, under very short deadlines to have the projects finished and LNG imports starting by April 2020. Three of the proposed power plants (Thaketa, Thanlyin, Kyaukpyu) were delayed due to Covid-19 restrictions, but started operation in summer of 2020. [5] These emergency power projects, located around the city of Yangon, started importing LNG in June 2020 on small-scale shuttle vessels due to the shallow river. [4]
Table 1: Proposed LNG Import Terminals in Myanmar
| Project Name | Location | Cost (US$) | Capacity | Expected Commencement Date | Sponsor | Project Status | Main Users |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rakhine LNG Terminal[20] | Southwest Myanmar | [21]Phase I: 3 mtpa
Phase II: 6mtpa |
Phase I: 2025
Phase II: TBD |
Under construction | Kyaukpyu gas plant | ||
| Mee Laung Gyaing FSRU LNG Terminal | Ayeyawady region | $2.57 billion | 2024 | Zhefu Holding Group, Supreme Trading Co.[22] | Proposed | Mee Laung Gyaing 1390 MW Power Plant | |
| Kanbauk FSRU LNG Terminal[23] | Tanintharyi region | $2.1 billion | 2024 | Total E&P, Siemens Myanmar | Proposed | Kanbauk 1230 MW CC Power Plant | |
| Yangon LNG Terminal | Thilawa Special Economic Zone | 4 mtpa | 2026 | Sumitomo, Marubeni, Mitsui, and Eden[24] | Proposed |
Table 2: Recent and Proposed Developments of Natural Gas Projects in Myanmar
| Project Name | Location | Capacity | Expected Commencement Date | Sponsor | Project Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyun Chaung Gas Plant | Magwe Region | 20 MW | Summer 2020 | VPower[25] | Operating | |
| Ahlone Gas Plant[26] | Ahlon Township of Yangon | 152 MW | July 2020 | China Energy Engineering Group-Hunan Electric Power Design Institute Co. Ltd (CEEC-PHEDI), China ITS (Holding) Co. Ltd, and Shenzhen Shennan Power Gas Turbine Engineering Technique Co. Ltd. | Operating | |
| Thanlyin LNG-to-power[26] | Thanlyin Township | 350 MW | June 2020 | VPower, CNTIC[27] | Operating | |
| Thakayta LNG-to-power[28] | Township of Yangon | 400 MW | June 2020 | VPower, CNTIC[29] | Operating | |
| Kyaukphyu LNG-to-power | Rakhine State | 150 MW | June 2020[30] | VPower, CNTIC[26] | Operating | |
| Ahlone Power Station Unit 2[31] | Ahlone | 388 MW | 2024 | Toyo Thai Myanmar Power Co., Ltd | Proposed | |
| Thilawa LNG-to-power | Thilawa | 1250 MW | 2024[32] | Sumitomo, Marubeni and Mitsui, Eden[33] | Proposed | |
| Thilawa Power Plant[34] | Thilawa | 75 MW[35] | 2024 | Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise (MEPE) | Proposed | |
| Kanbauk CC Power Plant[36] | Tanintharyi | 1230 MW | 2022 | Total, Siemens | Proposed | |
| Mee Laung Gyaing Power Plant[37] | Ayeyawady region | 1390 MW | Phase I: 2022
Phase II: 2024 |
Zhefu Holding Company | Proposed | |
| Ywama Power Station[38] | Yangon | 300 MW | 2022 | Electric Power Generation Enterprise (EPGE) | Proposed | |
| Myeik Township Power Station[39] | Myeik | 610 MW | Myeik Public Corporation Ltd., Korea Management Policy Institute Group | Proposed | ||
| Kyaiklat Power Plant[40] | Kyaiklat | 600 MW | 2024 | PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited (PTTEP); Global Power Synergy Plc (GPSC) | Proposed | |
| Danson Bay Power Station[41] | 4000 MW | Korea Management Policy Institute Group | Proposed |
Projection of Gas Production
Domestic natural gas production is forecasted to decline. While new gas developments are being explored, this new production will not offset the decline in production from existing fields. Therefore LNG projects are expected to make up the difference between supply and demand.[10]
In Myanmar's Natural Gas Master Plan report, total domestic natural gas production is forecasted at 1,350 mmcfd, or 13.95 bcm, in 2025, and 810 mmcfd, or 8.4 bcm, by 2040.[42]
The 2020 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies report forecasts LNG imports around 3 mtpa, or 4.1 bcm, in 2030.[5]
Articles and Resources
References
Related GEM.wiki articles
External resources
External articles
- ↑ "Myanmar GDP Annual Growth Rate | 1994-2019 Data | 2020-2021 Forecast | Historical". tradingeconomics.com. Retrieved 2021-01-08.
- ↑ "2011–2015 Myanmar Political Reforms". Retrieved January 7, 2020.
- ↑ "Myanmar: Power System Efficiency Project Brings Country Closer to Universal Electricity Access". World Bank. Retrieved 2021-01-07.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 "Myanmar developing 4,000 MW of LNG-to-power projects: minister | S&P Global Platts". www.spglobal.com. 2020-10-07. Retrieved 2021-01-07.
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 "Emerging Asia LNG Demand". Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Retrieved 2020-12-21.
- ↑ "EIA: Myanmar joins LNG importers circle". Offshore Energy. 2020-06-19. Retrieved 2021-01-07.
- ↑ "Exploration projects and supply chain improvements tap Myanmar's energy potential". Oxford Business Group. 2020-01-09. Retrieved 2021-01-07.
- ↑ "Burma - Myanmar - Electricity generation 2018". countryeconomy.com. Retrieved 2021-02-06.
- ↑ "2015 Myanmar Master Energy Plan" (PDF). Retrieved February 6, 2021.
- ↑ 10.00 10.01 10.02 10.03 10.04 10.05 10.06 10.07 10.08 10.09 10.10 10.11 "Natural Gas Master Plan for Myanmar" (PDF). Retrieved January 1, 2020.
- ↑ "BP Statistical Review of Word Energy 2020" (PDF). Retrieved February 3, 2021.
- ↑ "LNG Prospects in South East Asia" (PDF). Retrieved January 7, 2021.
- ↑ Battersby (a_battersby), Amanda. "OPINION: Myanmar offshore exploration success could tempt players | Upstream Online". Upstream Online | Latest oil and gas news. Retrieved 2021-01-08.
- ↑ "Posco Inter discovers new gas field near A-3 production base in Myanmar - Pulse by Maeil Business News Korea". pulsenews.co.kr (in 한국어). Retrieved 2021-02-03.
- ↑ 15.0 15.1 15.2 "Exploration projects and supply chain improvements tap Myanmar's energy potential". Oxford Business Group. 2020-01-09. Retrieved 2021-01-07.
- ↑ "Thailand's PTTEP makes gas discovery in block M3 offshore Myanmar | S&P Global Platts". www.spglobal.com. 2013-08-15. Retrieved 2021-02-03.
- ↑ "Aung Sinkha wells confirm gas potential offshore Myanmar". Offshore. 2013-08-19. Retrieved 2021-02-03.
- ↑ "Shwe Natural Gas Project, Bay of Bengal, Myanmar". www.offshore-technology.com. Retrieved 2021-01-07.
- ↑ "The rush job: Myanmar's 'impossible' emergency power tender". Frontier Myanmar. 2019-09-25. Retrieved 2020-12-21.
- ↑ "EIA: Myanmar joins LNG importers circle". Offshore Energy. 2020-06-19. Retrieved 2021-01-05.
- ↑ "LNG Terminal Division – MCM GROUP". Retrieved 2021-01-28.
- ↑ "Mee Laung Gyaing LNG project to commence construction soon". The Myanmar Times. 2020-01-03. Retrieved 2021-01-06.
- ↑ "Negotiations still underway over Kanbauk LNG project". The Myanmar Times. 2019-06-24. Retrieved 2021-01-06.
- ↑ "Exclusive Development Rights Acquired for Thilawa LNG To Power Project in Myanmar". Sumitomo Corporation in Africa. Retrieved 2021-01-05.
- ↑ "Magwe gas plant starts running, VPower says". The Myanmar Times. 2020-07-06. Retrieved 2021-01-04.
- ↑ 26.0 26.1 26.2 "Myanmar Power Plants Delayed by COVID-19 to Start Operating in Coming Months". The Irrawaddy. 2020-05-19. Retrieved 2021-01-05.
- ↑ "ThaibizMyanmar.com : Myanmar will generate its first Chinese-backed LNG power plant in Yangon very soon". ThaibizMyanmar.com. Retrieved 2021-01-05.
- ↑ "The rush job: Myanmar's 'impossible' emergency power tender". Frontier Myanmar. 2019-09-25. Retrieved 2021-01-05.
- ↑ "Magwe gas plant starts running, VPower says". The Myanmar Times. 2020-07-06. Retrieved 2021-01-05.
- ↑ "How electric vehicles and battery metals survived the pandemic | S&P Global Platts". www.spglobal.com. 2021-01-05. Retrieved 2021-01-05.
- ↑ "Thailand's TTCL signs PPA for a 388 MW LNG-to-power project in Myanmar | Enerdata". www.enerdata.net. Retrieved 2021-02-04.
- ↑ "U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)". www.eia.gov. Retrieved 2021-01-05.
- ↑ "Japanese group wins Myanmar gas-fired power project". www.argusmedia.com. 2020-07-27. Retrieved 2021-01-05.
- ↑ "Sumitomo signs power agreement for Thilawa SEZ". The Myanmar Times. 2015-03-03. Retrieved 2021-02-04.
- ↑ "Thilawa Combined Cycle Power Plant Project | Profile". projectbank.gov.mm. Retrieved 2021-02-04.
- ↑ "Kanbauk LNG Project". Retrieved January 28, 2021.
- ↑ "Mee Laung Gyaing LNG project to commence construction soon". The Myanmar Times. 2020-01-03. Retrieved 2021-01-28.
- ↑ "Invitation for Prequalification" (PDF). Retrieved February 4, 2021.
- ↑ "Second LNG Power Plant of Tanintharyi Region to be Constructed in Myeik Archipelago" (PDF). Retrieved February 4, 2021.
- ↑ "PTTEP approved to build gas-to-power plant in Myanmar". The Myanmar Times. 2021-01-04. Retrieved 2021-02-04.
- ↑ "KMPI CONSORTIUM - Power Plants Project in Danson". sites.google.com. Retrieved 2021-02-04.
- ↑ "Natural Gas Master Plan for Myanmar" (PDF). Retrieved January 4, 2020.
