Philippines and fossil gas

From Global Energy Monitor
This article is part of the Global Energy Monitor coverage of fossil gas
Sub-articles:

After contracting 8.26% in 2020 due to COVID-19, Philippines GDP growth rate is forecasted to jump back to 7.41% for 2021 and to remain around 6.5% annually through 2025.[1]

Philippines Power Generation by Fuel[2]
Electricity Demand

According to the Power Development Plan 2017-2040, peak electricity demand in the Philippines is projected to grow 5% annually and reach a total of 49,287 MW by 2040. A total of 43,765 MW of additional capacity must come on-line by 2040 in order to meet this demand.

Total electricity demand in 2017 was 94,370 GWh and total installed capacity was 22,730 MW. The plan projects total electricity demand to reach 230,000 GWh in 2040.[3]

Major Players

The Philippines Department of Energy is the regulatory body responsible for coordinating government policy and activities in the energy sector.[4]

Natural Gas Demand

Total natural gas consumption in 2019 was 4.1 bcm.[5]

[4]Natural Gas Consumption in Philippines by Sector, 2020

Key Demand Drivers

As of 2020, more than 97 percent of all gas production is consumed by the power sector.[4]

Industry use of natural gas is limited to supply for feedstock for the Shell refinery in Batangas.

In the transportation sector, there is currently no demand for natural gas. Between 2008-2014, a pilot program, that has since been discontinued, used natural gas to supply CNG to buses operating between Batangas and Manila.[6]

Projection of Demand Growth

Under the "Clean Energy" scenario in the Philippines Energy Plan 2018 - 2040, released in August of 2020, natural gas demand increases by 4% in between 2018 and 2040. This is predominantly driven by commercial and transportation demand growth.[3]

Since natural gas demand is driven by the power generation sector, the gas demand outlook is largely dependent on gas infrastructure development.

A 2020 OIES report forecasts gas demand reaching 7.5 bcm by 2030.[2]

Natural Gas Supply

Gas production in the Philippines is entirely drawn from the Malampaya field, which started production in 2001. The Malampaya field is an offshore development, with a 500 km pipelines linking to Batangas, where the gas is then routed to three CCGT power plants, the 1200 MW Ilijan plant, 1000 MW Santa Rita plant, and 500 MW San Lorenzo plant. Total production from the Malampaya development is 3-4 bcm per year.[2] Production levels from the Malampaya gas field are expected to decline starting in 2024. While the current production license expires in 2024, some production is expected to continue until around 2027.[2]

Two newer gas plants which also use gas from Malampaya include the San Gabriel mid-merit and Avion peaking plant.[7] The San Gabriel and Avion plants were built with the intention to switch to LNG once the Malampaya gas field is depleted.[8]

Given the expected depletion of the Malampaya gas supply, the Philippines Department of Energy is aggressively planning to expand LNG investments to meet the country's energy demand.[9]

Potential New Gas Sources

Philippines has no onshore reserves. However, there are offshore blocks that have yet to be explored in the South China Sea.[10] Most energy companies have refrained from bidding on these blocks due to security risks associated with energy exploration close or within the South China Sea due to China's recent threats involving foreign exploration vessels.[11]

In October 2020, Philippines National Oil Company (PNOC) announced that they were resuming oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea after suspending activities in 2014 due to rising tensions with China.[12] PNOC was awarded Service Contract 57 which covers the Calamian oil and gas prospect, which may have natural gas reserves of about 2 trillion cubic feet. PNOC is hoping to start production from this discovery by 2027.[13]

Current Gas Supply Projects

Proposed Gas Supply Projects

As shown in Table 1, there are a number of LNG developments in the Philippines.

The Tanglawan LNG Terminal, a proposed 2.2 mtpa capacity LNG terminal with an adjacent 2000 MW power plant project in Batangas was put on hold as of December 2019.[14]

Table 1: Proposed LNG Terminals in Philippines
Project Name Location Capacity Expected Commencement Date Sponsor Project Status Main Users
Batangas FSRU[15] Batangas City, Southern Luzon Island 5 mtpa[16] 3rd quarter 2022 First Gen. Corp, Tokyo Gas Proposed, DoE Notice to Proceed granted St. Maria & St. Joseph proposed power stations[17]
Filipinas FSRU LNG Gateway Project[18] Offshore Batangas Bay 5 mtpa 2nd quarter 2022 U.S.-based Excelerate Energy LP Under construction
Batangas Clean Energy LNG Terminal[19] Batangas City 3 mtpa[20] 2025[20] Batangas Clean Energy Inc. Proposed, DoE Notice to Proceed granted proposed Batangas 1100 MW CCGT
Pagbilao Grande Island LNG Terminal[20] Pagbilao, Quezon Province 3 mtpa 2024[21] Australia-listed Energy World Corp. Proposed, DoE Notice to Proceed granted proposed 650 MW power plant
Table 1: Proposed Gas Power Plants in Philippines
Project Name Location Capacity Expected Start Sponsor Project Details/Status
Saint Joseph Batangas Power Plant[17] Batangas 600 MW 2023 First Gen. Corp.
EW CCGT Power Plant[22] Brgy Ibabang Polo, Grande Island, Pagbilao Quezon province 650 MW December 2022 Energy World Near LNG receiving plant. Committed project according to Philippines DOE.
Natural Gas-Fired Power Plant[22] Pinamucan Ibaba, Batangas City 1100 MW 2025 Batangas Clean Energy Will be alongside an LNG import terminal. Committed project according to Philippines DOE.
SMC Ilijan LNG Power Plant[22] Batangas 3600 MW 2024 (Phase 1) SMC Global Power Holdings Corp. 3 phases, each one 1200 MW. Indicative project according to Philippines DOE.
Vires LNG-Fired Power Barge Project[23] Batangas Bay area, Batangas 500 MW TBD VIRES Energy Corporation Indicative project according to Philippines DOE.
Santa Maria Power Plant [17] Bantangas 1200 MW 2023 First GenEcopower Solutions Inc. Indicative project according to Philippines DOE.
Lucidem LNG Power Plant[22] Silanguin Bay, Zambales 300 MW TBD Lucidum Energy, Inc. Indicative project according to Philippines DOE.
Lloyds Energy Philippines Inc. Floating Power Plant[24] San Pascual, Batangas Bay 1200 MW 2023 Lloyds Energy Philippines Inc. Indicative project according to Philippines DOE.
Argao Floating CCGT Power Plant Brgy. Bulasa, Argao, Cebu 1238 MW TBD PHINMA Energy Corp. Indicative project according to Philippines DOE.

Projection of Gas Production

As of 2020, there is still much uncertainty about the gas production outlook. The Malampaya field is expected to decline in productivity until it reaches its depletion in early to mid-2020s. There are currently no plans for additional domestic production but exploration in the South China Sea could uncover additional natural gas reserves.[25]

While there is much uncertainty surround LNG infrastructure developments, a 2020 OIES projection shows LNG imports meeting demand, reaching 5 bcm by 2040.[2]

Philippines Projected Natural Gas Supply and Demand[2]

Articles and Resources

References

Related GEM.wiki articles

External resources

External articles

  1. "Philippines - Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate 2025". Statista. Retrieved 2021-02-12.
  2. 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 "Emerging Asia LNG Demand". Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Retrieved 2021-01-11.
  3. 3.0 3.1 "Philippine Energy Plan 2018-2040" (PDF). Retrieved January 12, 2021.
  4. 4.0 4.1 4.2 "Republic of the Philippines, Department of Energy". Retrieved January 11, 2021.
  5. "BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2020" (PDF). Retrieved February 3, 2021.
  6. "Natural Gas Vehicle Program for Public Transport (NGVPPT)". Retrieved January 11, 2021.
  7. News, Power Philippines (2016-11-10). "San Gabriel power plant in Batangas kick starts operations". Power Philippines. Retrieved 2021-01-11.
  8. "Philippines: Energy Sector Assessment, Strategy and Road Map" (PDF). October 2018. Retrieved January 11, 2021.
  9. "'Malampaya reserves not enough'". The Manila Times. Retrieved 2021-01-11.
  10. "Running Out of Gas: Philippine Energy Security and the South China Sea". Foreign Policy Research Institute. Retrieved 2021-01-11.
  11. "Simmering stand-off: China disrupts Malaysia, Vietnam ship exploration". South China Morning Post. 2019-07-17. Retrieved 2021-01-11.
  12. "Philippines to restart oil and gas exploration in South China Sea". Financial Times. Retrieved January 12, 2021.
  13. Staff, Reuters (2020-10-20). "Philippines' PNOC aims to start S.China Sea venture with CNOOC by 2021". Reuters. Retrieved 2021-02-03.
  14. Staff, Reuters (2019-12-18). "Planned $2 billion LNG project in Philippines put on hold". Reuters. Retrieved 2021-01-12.
  15. "Tokyo Gas, First Gen sign JCA to build offshore LNG terminal in Philippines". Retrieved 2021-01-11.
  16. "Tokyo, First Gen form JV for Southern Luzon Island LNG terminal". Oil & Gas Journal. 2020-10-07. Retrieved 2021-01-11.
  17. 17.0 17.1 17.2 "First Gen accelerates 2 gas-fired plants with 1,200MW capacity". Manila Bulletin. 2019-05-23. Retrieved 2021-01-28.
  18. "US firm Excelerate to build PHL's first 'open access' LNG terminal in Batangas". GMA News Online. Retrieved 2021-01-11.
  19. "Lucio Tan, foreign partners pursue P82.5-b LNG project - Manila Standard". www.manilastandard.net. Retrieved 2021-01-11.
  20. 20.0 20.1 20.2 "Factbox: Philippines to open door to LNG imports with $1.34 billion terminal projects". TODAYonline. Retrieved 2021-01-11.
  21. Domingo, Ronnel W. (2020-09-08). "Aussie firm spent $32M more on Quezon project". INQUIRER.net. Retrieved 2021-01-11.
  22. 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.3 "PRIVATE SECTOR INITIATED POWER PROJECTS" (PDF). Retrieved January 28, 2021.
  23. "Vires Energy pushes LNG power project". PHILIPPINE POWER INSIGHTS. 2019-02-10. Retrieved 2021-01-28.
  24. Lectura, Lenie; Lectura, Lenie (2019-07-08). "Lloyds, Mitsubishi partner to build 1,200-MW LNG merchant power hub | Lenie Lectura". BusinessMirror. Retrieved 2021-01-28.
  25. "Philippine energy sector seeking to meet demand and expand capacity". Oxford Business Group. 2017-06-13. Retrieved 2021-01-12.