Thailand and fossil gas

From Global Energy Monitor
This article is part of the Global Energy Monitor coverage of fossil gas
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Thailand is the second largest economy in Southeast Asia. After contracting 7.15% in 2020 due to COVID-19, GDP growth is forecasted between 3.5-4.5% through 2025.[1] The increase in Thailand's GDP has corresponded to an increase in energy consumption.[2]

Thailand Power Generation by Fuel[3]
Electricity Demand

Electricity consumption has grown an average of 3.5% per year since 2015. [4]

As of 2018, Thailand has an existing capacity of 46,090 MW. According to the new revised PDP, total electricity generation capacity in 2037 is forecasted to be 77,211 MW. [5] Total electricity demand in 2018 was 203,203 GWh and is forecasted to reach 367,458 GWh by 2037.[6]

Major Players

PTT is the state-owned oil and gas company. PTT is the largest corporation in the country and is involved in electricity generation, petrochemical products, as well as oil and gas exploration and production.[7] In early 2020, PTT announced that it will invest $6.7 billion over 5 years to advance LNG and gas-to-power projects. [8]

Thailand Historical Electricity Consumption, 2002 - 2019[9]

Thailand's Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) is responsible for generating, transmitting, and wholesaling electricity. EGAT's generating capacity accounts for 33% of Thailand's electricity generating capacity as of 2019.[5]

Natural Gas Demand

Thailand has seen a steady growth in natural gas demand. Initially this was met by domestic production and in 1988, pipeline imports from Myanmar began. As domestic production declined, Thailand began importing LNG in 2011.[3] Total gas consumption in Thailand was 50.8 bcm in 2019.[10]

Key Demand Drivers

The power sector is the key driver of gas demand in Thailand, accounting for 68% of total generation in 2017.[3]

The industrial sector, which includes chemicals/petrochemicals (which use gas as feedstock), non-metallic minerals, and the paper industry, is a primary driver of natural gas demand.

Thailand Historical Gas Demand by Sector, 1981 to 2018[3]
Natural Gas Demand by End-Use, 2018[11]

As of 2018, Natural Gas Vehicles (NGVs) in the transportation sector account for 5% of natural gas demand.[12]

Projection of Demand Growth

Thailand Base Case Supply Demand Balance 2017 - 2050, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies[3]

The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, released a Base Case demand projection showing gas demand increasing marginally before peaking in 2030 at 48 bcm and then declining slightly. [3]

Power Development Plan 2018

In April 2019, Thailand's government approved the amended National Power Development Plan (PDP). Under the revised PDP, the government forecasts having 53% of the country's power from natural gas by 2037, an increase of 13% from the previously released plan. The PDP 2018 forecasts total gas demand around 60 bcm by 2030.[6]

Thailand plans to increase LNG imports, with LNG accounting for 40% of gas supply by 2025 and close to 80-90% by 2037. [12]

Natural Gas Supply

Natural Gas Pipeline Network in Thailand[13]

As of 2019, Thailand has 6.3 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves. Total gas production in Thailand as of 2019, was 35.8 bcm and total pipeline imports of 7.1 bcm came from Myanmar. In 2019, there was 6.7 bcm of total LNG imports with 2.6 bcm from Qatar.[10]

Thailand has an extensive natural gas transmission infrastructure. The national gas pipeline system connects onshore and offshore gas fields to power plants, gas separation plants (GSPs) as well as industrial users.[14]

There is a history of domestic natural gas production in Thailand. Initially, domestic production was mainly offshore in the Gulf of Thailand. Since natural gas produced in the Gulf of Thailand is generally "wet" gas (made up of other hydrocarbons such as ethane, propane, butane, etc), it is fed into GSPs to extract the hydrocarbons.[13] Gas produced in the Gulf of Thailand is routed to Rayong where it is treated and delivered to power plants, industrial plants, and GSPs. [3] Gulf of Thailand reserves peaked in 2006 and have plummeted since then, with a reserve to production ratio of just 5.2 years.[12]

Pipeline imports from Myanmar started in 1998, plateauing at 10 bcm.[3] The imported pipeline gas supply mainly comes from Myanmar's Yadana and Yetagun gas fields. This pipeline gas supply comes from the West to the Kanchanaburi province and is routed to power plants in the Ratchaburi province.[3] Myanmar has also set a policy of no future gas exports to Thailand, causing LNG imports to rise to meet increasing demand once the current contracts end.[13]

Additionally, a small volume of gas is imported from the ExxonMobil-operated Phu Hom and Nam Phong fields in the Northeast. Since the fields are not connected to the gas grid infrastructure, the gas is sourced solely to power nearby power plants, NGV stations, and local communities.[3][13]

Thailand Historical Supply-Demand Balance, 1981 - 2019[3]

As domestic production began to decline, LNG imports began in 2011.[3] Thailand has relied mainly on short term deals and and spot cargoes for its LNG until the Qatari contract began in 2015 (2 mtpa for 20 years).[15] As of 2020, current total contracted LNG is 6.2 mtpa with an additional 2.6 mtpa to come from Mozambique. [3]

As of 2017, the Gulf of Thailand (which includes MTJDA) produced 71% of the country's available gas, 17% was imported via pipelines from Myanmar and the remaining 11% through LNG imports.[12]

Potential New Gas Sources

Thailand plans to launch its 2020 offshore exploration licensing round as soon as there is an improvement in the Covid-19 pandemic. The 23rd licensing round will comprise of three blocks that all have good oil and gas potential, according to officials from the Department of Mineral Fuels.[16]

Malaysia-Thailand Joint Development Area (MTJDA) is an area in the Gulf of Thailand which was created as a joint measure to explore, develop and produce natural gas from the zone.[17] The MTJDA reserves are expected to be exhausted by 2027 according to a study by the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia.[12]

Current Gas Supply Projects

Map Ta Phut LNG Terminal, which started operation in 2011 and has a capacity of 5 mtpa, is Thailand's first LNG regasification terminal. A second phase in 2017 added 5 mtpa and there is potential for further expansion.[3]

Proposed Gas Supply Projects

Under the new national gas plan 2018-2037, gas exploration and production activities in the Gulf of Thailand will be emphasized. EGAT is planning to restart a retired oil-fueled generator in Surat Thani with natural gas instead. [18]

Table 1: Proposed LNG Import Terminals[19]
Project Name Location Capacity Expected Commencement Date Sponsor Project Status Main Users
Gulf of Thailand FSRU LNG Terminal[20] Gulf of Thailand 5 mtpa 2024 EGAT Proposed South Bangkok Power Plant
Nong Fab LNG Terminal Project Nong Fab, Eastern Rayong 7.5 mtpa 2022 PTT Under construction
Gulf MTP LNG Terminal[21] Map Ta Phut Phase I: 5 mtpa

Phase II: 10.8 mtpa

Phase I: 2025

Phase II: TBD

Gulf MPT LNG Terminal Company Limited Proposed PPP signed[22]
Chana LNG Terminal[23] Chana 2 mtpa 2028 Studying
Thailand FSRU 1 LNG Terminal[23] 5 mtpa 2030 Studying
Thailand FSRU 2 LNG Terminal[23] 5 mtpa 2035 Studying
Table 2: Proposed Gas Power Plants in Thailand[23]
Project Name Location Capacity Expected Start Sponsor Project Details/Status
Bangpakong Replacement Units 1 & 2[24] Tha Kham, Chachoengsao 1386 MW 2020 EGAT Under construction
Ratchaburi (B.Grimm) Power Station[25] Ratchaburi 240 MW 2022 B.Grimm Power Proposed
Chonburi Ng Project Power Station[26] Khao Khansong Phase I: 1250 MW

Phase II: 1250 MW

Phase I: 2021

Phase II: 2022

Gulf Energy, Mitsui Under construction
Rayong Gulf PD Unit 1 & 2 Pluak Daeng, Rayong Province Phase I: 1325 MW

Phase II: 1325 MW

Phase I: 2023

Phase II: 2024

Gulf Energy, Mitsui Under construction
Ratchaburi Power Station[27] Muang district, Ratchaburi province Phase I: 700 MW

Phase II: 700 MW

Phase I: 2024

Phase II: 2025

Hin Kong Power Company Limited Under construction; Mitsubishi Power signs contract to build,[27]25-yr PPA with EGAT[28]
Burapa Power Station[29] Chachoengsao 540 MW 2027[30] Gulf Energy, Burapa Power Holding Co. Proposed
Nampong Replacement Plant[31] Nam Phong District, Khon Kaen Province 650 MW 2025 EGAT First public hearing held 2019[32]
Wang Noi Power Plant Replacement[33] Wang Noi District Phase I: 1300 MW

Phase II: 1300 MW

Phase I: 2023

Phase II: 2023

EGAT Second public hearing held 2019[34]
Surat Thani Power Station[35] Surat Thani Province Phase I: 700 MW

Phase II: 700 MW

Phase I: 2025

Phase II: 2029

EGAT Will come online two years earlier than scheduled
South Bangkok Power Plant Extension[36] Samut Prakarn Province Phase I: 700 MW

Phase II: 1400 MW

Phase I: 2026

Phase II: 2027

EGAT In PDP 2018[6]
North Bangkok Power Plant Extension[31] Nonthaburi Province Phase I: 700 MW

Phase II: 700 MW

Phase I: 2028

Phase II: 2035

EGAT In PDP 2018[6]
New Power Plant North Eastern region 700 MW 2030 EGAT In PDP 2018[6]
New Power Plant Central Region 1400 MW 2032 EGAT In PDP 2018[6]
New Power Plant North Eastern Region 700 MW 2032 EGAT In PDP 2018[6]
New Power Plant Southern Region 700 MW 2035 EGAT In PDP 2018[6]
New Power Plant Bangkok 700 MW 2036 EGAT In PDP 2018[6]
New Power Plant Eastern Region 700 MW 2037 EGAT In PDP 2018[6]

Table 3: Proposed Gas Pipeline Projects in Thailand

Project Name Capacity Owner Expected Start Length (km) Diameter (inches)
Isan Gas Pipeline PTT TBD TBD
Chachoengsao-Nonthaburi Gas Pipeline PTT 2021 200 km

Projection of Gas Production

In the 2020 OIES report, domestic gas production is expected to decline in the long run, forecasted at 10 bcm by 2035. Pipeline imports are also expected to decrease as contracts end. LNG imports are forecasted to increase significantly, reaching 28 bcm by 2030 and 35 bcm by 2040.[3]

Thailand Base Case Supply Demand Balance, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies[3]
Thailand Power Development Plan, 2019 - 2038[6]

Articles and Resources

References

Related GEM.wiki articles

External resources

External articles

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  2. "Thailand's LNG Sector" (PDF). Retrieved December 21, 2020.
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