Japan and fossil gas

From Global Energy Monitor

In 2019, Japan was the world's largest LNG importer.[1] Japan has the third largest economy of the world and has a projected GDP growth of 1.1% in APEC's latest Energy Demand and Supply Outlook Report.[2]

Japan's Net Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2000-2019[1]

After the Fukushima incident in 2011 all of the country's nuclear reactors were taken offline pending clearance from the Nuclear Regulation Authority[3] and therefore Japan became much more reliant on LNG imports for its power generation mix.[4]

This article is part of the Global Energy Monitor coverage of fossil gas
Sub-articles:
Electricity Demand

Japan's electricity consumption in 2019 was 950 TWh[1] and is projected to reach 1,065 TWh by FY2030.[5]

Major Players

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) is the regulatory agency that oversees Japan's energy sector.

Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) is the largest electric utility in Japan.

Natural Gas Demand

Total gas consumption in Japan in 2019 was 108.1 bcm.[6] In FY2018-2019, LNG made up 38% of the power generation mix.[7]

In 2019, the power sector accounted for two-thirds of natural gas demand, 20% from the industrial sector, and 13% from the residential and commercial sector.[1]

Key Demand Drivers

Flat electricity demand and lower projected gas consumption in the power generation sector are key drivers in gas demand. This is primarily due to an aging population, declining birthrate, and stagnate economic growth.[8]

Government policy (NEP 2030) emphasizing reinstating nuclear power capacity and renewable power additions will help drive gas demand lower.[4]

Japan LNG demand forecast, GECF[4]

Projection of Demand Growth

GECF forecasts that LNG demand will fall to 62-64 mtpa, or 85.5 - 88.3 bcm, by 2030 and stay flat through 2040, from 80.8 mtpa, or 111.4 bcm, in 2017.[4]

5th National Energy Plan (NEP) 2030

NEP 2030 Projected Generation Mix[9]

The country's 5th National Energy Plan was released in 2018.[10] The plan targets renewable energy to make up 22-24% of the power generation mix, 20-22% from nuclear, 26% from coal, 27% from LNG, and 3% from oil in 2030.[4]

The plan also aims to cut Japan's carbon dioxide emissions by 26% by 2030, and by 80% by 2050. According to the plan, nuclear energy will recover to pre-Fukushima levels.

Natural Gas Supply

Japan's LNG Imports by Source, 2019

Total LNG imports in Japan as of 2019 was 105.5 bcm, of which 5 bcm came from the United Stated, 8.7 bcm from Russia, 11.9 bcm from Qatar, 41 bcm from Australia, 5.9 bcm from Brunei, 5.7 bcm from Indonesia, and 12.8 bcm from Malaysia.[6]

Japan has no natural gas pipelines and relies on tanker shipments of LNG. Japan had 20.9 bcm of proved natural gas reserves as of January 2020 and domestic production accounted for only 2% of gas consumption.[1]

Potential New Gas Sources

In 2019, Japan Petroleum Exploration (JAPEX) made a gas discovery in the offshore Hidako area of Hokkaido region[11] JAPEX will carry out further analysis to review the possibility of exploration opportunities.[12]

Current Gas Supply Projects

As of mid-2020s, Japan operates 37 LNG-import terminals and its regasification capacity exceeds its natural gas demand.[1]

Proposed Gas Supply Projects

Table 1: Proposed LNG Terminals in Japan
Project Name Location Capacity Expected Commencement Date Sponsor Project Status Main Users
Niihama Kita LNG Terminal Niihama 2022 Sumitomo Chemical, Sumitomo Joint Electric Power, Shikoku Electric, Tokyo Gas Shelved; no progress has been made
Wakayama LNG Terminal Wakayama 3.5 mtpa 2023 Kansai Electric Power Company
Hibiki LNG Terminal Expansion Kitakyushu City Saibu Gas, Kyushu Electric Power Considering building one or two 230,000 cubic meter LNG storage tanks[13] Will be used as transit point for LNG exports by Novatek via the Arctic Ocean to Asia

Table 2: Proposed Gas Power Plants in Japan

Project Name Location Capacity Expected Start Sponsor Project Details/Status
Anegasaki Thermal Power Station[14] Ichihara 1950 MW 2023 JERA Co. Inc Under construction; Turnkey contract awarded to Mitsubishi in March 2020[15]
Chiba-Sodegaura Power Station Sodegaura 2000 MW 2027 Chiba-Sodegaura Energy Co Ltd. Originally fueled by coal/biomass, switched to gas after regulations made plans unprofitable[16]
Shin Goi Power Station Ichihara 2340 MW 2024-2025 JERA Co. Inc., JXTG Nippon Oil & Energy Corp MoU signed in 2018[17], EPC contract awarded to Toshiba consortium[18]
Hibiki Natural Gas Power Plant Kitakyushu City 1600 MW TBA Saibu Gas Co., Ltd. Shelved; Postposed in 2016[19]
Himeji Natural Gas Power Station Himeji City 1250 MW 2026 Himeji Natural Gas Power Generation Co Investment agrement with Osaka Gas Co. in 2019[20]
Ishikariwan Shinko Power Station[21] Otaru Unit I: 569.4 MW

Unit II: 569.4 MW

Unit I: 2026

Unit II: 2030

Hokkaido Electric Power Co. Proposed
Joetsu Thermal Power Station Niigata 572 MW 2023 Tohoku Electric Under construction[22]; Will be built adjacent to Chubu Elrectric's power station[23]
Wakayama Power Station[24] Himeji 3700 MW 2027 Kansai Electric Power Co (KEPCO) Proposed

Table 3: Proposed Gas Pipeline Projects in Japan

Project Name Capacity Owner Expected Start Length (km) Diameter (inches)
Sakhalin-Hokkaido Gas Pipeline 25 bcm/yr Gazprom, Japanese Pipeline Development Organization (JPDO) 2024 1,500 km
Amagasaki-Kumiyama Gas Pipeline Osaka Gas 2028 49 km
Nanohana Gas Pipeline Nanohana Pipeline Company 2022 30 km

Projection of Gas Production

Japan has minimal domestic production of natural gas.

Articles and Resources

References

Related GEM.wiki articles

External resources

External articles

  1. 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 "International - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)". www.eia.gov. Retrieved 2021-02-05.
  2. "APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook (7th Edition) - Volume II". APEC. Retrieved 2021-02-06.
  3. "Japanese Cabinet approves new basic energy plan - World Nuclear News". www.world-nuclear-news.org. Retrieved 2021-02-06.
  4. 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 "Japan's 2030 National Energy Plan, and its future gas demand". GECF. Retrieved 2021-02-05.
  5. "Japan's Long-Term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook" (PDF). METI. Retrieved February 6, 2021.
  6. 6.0 6.1 "BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2020" (PDF). BP. Retrieved February 5, 2021.
  7. "Japan's METI kicks off policy discussions to review 2030 energy mix | S&P Global Platts". www.spglobal.com. 2020-10-13. Retrieved 2021-02-06.
  8. Staff, Reuters (2019-11-13). "Japan marks 50 years of LNG imports with eye on Asia growth". Reuters. Retrieved 2021-02-06.
  9. "Japan at an international crossroads - seeking a sunset for coal". climateanalytics.org. Retrieved 2021-02-06.
  10. "Strategic Energy Plan" (PDF). Retrieved February 6, 2021.
  11. "Japex strikes gas off Japan". www.pipelineoilandgasnews.com. Retrieved 2021-02-05.
  12. "JAPEX finds gas in offshore Hidaka area in Japan - NS Energy". Retrieved 2021-02-05.
  13. Newsbase. "Saibu Gas mulls Hibiki LNG expansion". oglinks.news. Retrieved 2021-02-01.
  14. "Anegasaki Thermal Power Station Upgrade - NS Energy". Retrieved 2021-02-01.
  15. "Mitsubishi Power, Ltd. | JERA Power Anegasaki Orders Three Cutting-Edge 1,650℃ MHPS M701JAC-type GTCC Power Generating Facilities -- Turnkey Construction Project for New Units 1-3 at the Anegasaki Thermal Power Station in Chiba Prefecture --". Mitsubishi Power, Ltd. Retrieved 2021-02-01.
  16. "Sodegaura power plant drops coal-biomass, turns to gas". www.argusmedia.com. 2019-01-31. Retrieved 2021-02-01.
  17. "Goi Thermal Power Station Replacement - NS Energy". Retrieved 2021-02-01.
  18. "TOSHIBA Group Wins Order for 2,340 MW Goi Thermal Power Station Replacement Work | TOSHIBA ENERGY SYSTEMS & SOLUTIONS CORPORATION". www.toshiba-energy.com. Retrieved 2021-02-01.
  19. Karl, Anja. "Saibu Gas delays 1.6 GW LNG-to-power project". lngjournal.com. Retrieved 2021-02-01.
  20. "Investment Decision on the Power Generation Business in Himeji City, Hyogo Prefecture" (PDF). Osaka Gas Co. Retrieved February 1, 2021.
  21. "Ishikariwan Shinko Power Plant, Hokkaido, Japan". Retrieved 2021-02-01.
  22. "Tohoku Annual Report 2018" (PDF). Retrieved February 1, 2021.
  23. "Cold spell drives oil resurgence in Asia's power sector | S&P Global Platts". www.spglobal.com. 2021-01-29. Retrieved 2021-02-01.
  24. "The Electric Power Industry in Japan 2019" (PDF). JEPIC. Retrieved February 1, 2021.