Japan and fossil gas
In 2019, Japan was the world's largest LNG importer. Japan has the third largest economy of the world and has a projected GDP growth of 1.1% in APEC's latest Energy Demand and Supply Outlook Report.
After the Fukushima incident in 2011 all of the country's nuclear reactors were taken offline pending clearance from the Nuclear Regulation Authority and therefore Japan became much more reliant on LNG imports for its power generation mix.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) is the regulatory agency that oversees Japan's energy sector.
Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) is the largest electric utility in Japan.
Natural Gas Demand
In 2019, the power sector accounted for two-thirds of natural gas demand, 20% from the industrial sector, and 13% from the residential and commercial sector.
Key Demand Drivers
Flat electricity demand and lower projected gas consumption in the power generation sector are key drivers in gas demand. This is primarily due to an aging population, declining birthrate, and stagnate economic growth.
Government policy (NEP 2030) emphasizing reinstating nuclear power capacity and renewable power additions will help drive gas demand lower.
Projection of Demand Growth
GECF forecasts that LNG demand will fall to 62-64 mtpa, or 85.5 - 88.3 bcm, by 2030 and stay flat through 2040, from 80.8 mtpa, or 111.4 bcm, in 2017.
5th National Energy Plan (NEP) 2030
The country's 5th National Energy Plan was released in 2018. The plan targets renewable energy to make up 22-24% of the power generation mix, 20-22% from nuclear, 26% from coal, 27% from LNG, and 3% from oil in 2030.
The plan also aims to cut Japan's carbon dioxide emissions by 26% by 2030, and by 80% by 2050. According to the plan, nuclear energy will recover to pre-Fukushima levels.
Natural Gas Supply
Total LNG imports in Japan as of 2019 was 105.5 bcm, of which 5 bcm came from the United Stated, 8.7 bcm from Russia, 11.9 bcm from Qatar, 41 bcm from Australia, 5.9 bcm from Brunei, 5.7 bcm from Indonesia, and 12.8 bcm from Malaysia.
Japan has no natural gas pipelines and relies on tanker shipments of LNG. Japan had 20.9 bcm of proved natural gas reserves as of January 2020 and domestic production accounted for only 2% of gas consumption.
Potential New Gas Sources
In 2019, Japan Petroleum Exploration (JAPEX) made a gas discovery in the offshore Hidako area of Hokkaido region JAPEX will carry out further analysis to review the possibility of exploration opportunities.
Current Gas Supply Projects
As of mid-2020s, Japan operates 37 LNG-import terminals and its regasification capacity exceeds its natural gas demand.
Proposed Gas Supply Projects
Table 1: Proposed LNG Terminals in Japan
|Project Name||Location||Capacity||Expected Commencement Date||Sponsor||Project Status||Main Users|
|Niihama Kita LNG Terminal||Niihama||2022||Sumitomo Chemical, Sumitomo Joint Electric Power, Shikoku Electric, Tokyo Gas||Shelved; no progress has been made|
|Wakayama LNG Terminal||Wakayama||3.5 mtpa||2023||Kansai Electric Power Company|
|Hibiki LNG Terminal Expansion||Kitakyushu City||Saibu Gas, Kyushu Electric Power||Considering building one or two 230,000 cubic meter LNG storage tanks||Will be used as transit point for LNG exports by Novatek via the Arctic Ocean to Asia|
Table 2: Proposed Gas Power Plants in Japan
|Project Name||Location||Capacity||Expected Start||Sponsor||Project Details/Status|
|Anegasaki Thermal Power Station||Ichihara||1950 MW||2023||JERA Co. Inc||Under construction; Turnkey contract awarded to Mitsubishi in March 2020|
|Chiba-Sodegaura Power Station||Sodegaura||2000 MW||2027||Chiba-Sodegaura Energy Co Ltd.||Originally fueled by coal/biomass, switched to gas after regulations made plans unprofitable|
|Shin Goi Power Station||Ichihara||2340 MW||2024-2025||JERA Co. Inc., JXTG Nippon Oil & Energy Corp||MoU signed in 2018, EPC contract awarded to Toshiba consortium|
|Hibiki Natural Gas Power Plant||Kitakyushu City||1600 MW||TBA||Saibu Gas Co., Ltd.||Shelved; Postposed in 2016|
|Himeji Natural Gas Power Station||Himeji City||1250 MW||2026||Himeji Natural Gas Power Generation Co||Investment agrement with Osaka Gas Co. in 2019|
|Ishikariwan Shinko Power Station||Otaru||Unit I: 569.4 MW
Unit II: 569.4 MW
|Unit I: 2026
Unit II: 2030
|Hokkaido Electric Power Co.||Proposed|
|Joetsu Thermal Power Station||Niigata||572 MW||2023||Tohoku Electric||Under construction; Will be built adjacent to Chubu Elrectric's power station|
|Wakayama Power Station||Himeji||3700 MW||2027||Kansai Electric Power Co (KEPCO)||Proposed|
Table 3: Proposed Gas Pipeline Projects in Japan
|Project Name||Capacity||Owner||Expected Start||Length (km)||Diameter (inches)|
|Sakhalin-Hokkaido Gas Pipeline||25 bcm/yr||Gazprom, Japanese Pipeline Development Organization (JPDO)||2024||1,500 km|
|Amagasaki-Kumiyama Gas Pipeline||Osaka Gas||2028||49 km|
|Nanohana Gas Pipeline||Nanohana Pipeline Company||2022||30 km|
Projection of Gas Production
Japan has minimal domestic production of natural gas.
Articles and Resources
Related GEM.wiki articles
- "International - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)". www.eia.gov. Retrieved 2021-02-05.
- "APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook (7th Edition) - Volume II". APEC. Retrieved 2021-02-06.
- "Japanese Cabinet approves new basic energy plan - World Nuclear News". www.world-nuclear-news.org. Retrieved 2021-02-06.
- "Japan's 2030 National Energy Plan, and its future gas demand". GECF. Retrieved 2021-02-05.
- "Japan's Long-Term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook" (PDF). METI. Retrieved February 6, 2021.
- "BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2020" (PDF). BP. Retrieved February 5, 2021.
- "Japan's METI kicks off policy discussions to review 2030 energy mix | S&P Global Platts". www.spglobal.com. 2020-10-13. Retrieved 2021-02-06.
- Staff, Reuters (2019-11-13). "Japan marks 50 years of LNG imports with eye on Asia growth". Reuters. Retrieved 2021-02-06.
- "Japan at an international crossroads - seeking a sunset for coal". climateanalytics.org. Retrieved 2021-02-06.
- "Strategic Energy Plan" (PDF). Retrieved February 6, 2021.
- "Japex strikes gas off Japan". www.pipelineoilandgasnews.com. Retrieved 2021-02-05.
- "JAPEX finds gas in offshore Hidaka area in Japan - NS Energy". Retrieved 2021-02-05.
- Newsbase. "Saibu Gas mulls Hibiki LNG expansion". oglinks.news. Retrieved 2021-02-01.
- "Anegasaki Thermal Power Station Upgrade - NS Energy". Retrieved 2021-02-01.
- "Mitsubishi Power, Ltd. | JERA Power Anegasaki Orders Three Cutting-Edge 1,650℃ MHPS M701JAC-type GTCC Power Generating Facilities -- Turnkey Construction Project for New Units 1-3 at the Anegasaki Thermal Power Station in Chiba Prefecture --". Mitsubishi Power, Ltd. Retrieved 2021-02-01.
- "Sodegaura power plant drops coal-biomass, turns to gas". www.argusmedia.com. 2019-01-31. Retrieved 2021-02-01.
- "Goi Thermal Power Station Replacement - NS Energy". Retrieved 2021-02-01.
- "TOSHIBA Group Wins Order for 2,340 MW Goi Thermal Power Station Replacement Work | TOSHIBA ENERGY SYSTEMS & SOLUTIONS CORPORATION". www.toshiba-energy.com. Retrieved 2021-02-01.
- Karl, Anja. "Saibu Gas delays 1.6 GW LNG-to-power project". lngjournal.com. Retrieved 2021-02-01.
- "Investment Decision on the Power Generation Business in Himeji City, Hyogo Prefecture" (PDF). Osaka Gas Co. Retrieved February 1, 2021.
- "Ishikariwan Shinko Power Plant, Hokkaido, Japan". Retrieved 2021-02-01.
- "Tohoku Annual Report 2018" (PDF). Retrieved February 1, 2021.
- "Cold spell drives oil resurgence in Asia's power sector | S&P Global Platts". www.spglobal.com. 2021-01-29. Retrieved 2021-02-01.
- "The Electric Power Industry in Japan 2019" (PDF). JEPIC. Retrieved February 1, 2021.