Singapore and fossil gas

From Global Energy Monitor
This article is part of the Global Energy Monitor coverage of fossil gas
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After contracting in 2020 due to COVID-19, Singapore's GDP growth is expected to reach 4.98% in 2021 and remain around 2.5% annually through 2025.[1]

Natural gas was first imported into Singapore to replace oil in the power generation sector. By 2013, natural gas had almost entirely replaced oil.[2] As of 2019, Singapore generates about 95% of its electricity from natural gas.[3] As pipeline import contracts are set to expire in the early 2020s, Singapore is shifting towards more LNG imports to meet its gas demand.[4]

Singapore Projected Annual System Demand[5]
Electricity Demand

Singapore's total system demand has increased from 42 TWh in 2009 to 54 TWh in 2019. Total system demand is projected to reach 71-75 TWh by 2030.[5] The latest 2020 Electricity Market Outlook report published by EMA forecasts annual system demand to be between 71.1 TWh and 75.1 TWh by 2030.[5] This is an increase of between 32% and 39% from 2019 system demand of 54 TWh.

Major Players

The Energy Market Authority oversees the Singapore gas industry and serves as an independent regulator of the gas and electricity industries.[2]

Singapore Historical Power Generation by Fuel[2]

Natural Gas Demand

Natural gas is the dominant fuel in the power generation sector. Natural gas use in the industrial sector started in 2003.[2]

Singapore Historical Natural Gas Demand[2]
Singapore Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 2019[6]

Key Demand Drivers

The industrial sector is one of the key areas of gas demand. Power demand growth from data centers are a key driver of natural gas growth.[7]

Singapore generates approximately 95% of its electricity using natural gas. Therefore, growth in the power generation sector will drive gas demand.[2]

Singapore Natural Gas Consumption, Industrial Sector, 2019[6]
Singapore Natural Gas Consumption, Commercial Sector, 2019[6]

Projection of Demand Growth

The latest 2020 Electricity Market Outlook report published by EMA forecasts annual system demand to be between 71.1 TWh and 75.1 TWh by 2030.[5] This is an increase of between 32% and 39% from 2019 system demand of 54 TWh. Assuming gas maintains its 95% market share in power generation, this would indicate an increase from 10.9 bcm in power in 2019 to between 14.4 bcm and 15.2 bcm by 2030.

In a 2020 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies report, natural gas demand is forecasted to grow slightly to 14 bcm by 2040. The rise in gas demand effectively reflects a rising demand for electricity since gas demand is primarily in the power sector. LNG is expected to supply nearly all of this demand with some supply via pipeline from Indonesia or Malaysia. Industrial demand for gas is forecasted to be 1.44 bcm in 2030 in a base case scenario.[2]

Natural Gas Supply

Singapore has no domestic gas production. LNG imports began in 2013 and previously all natural gas was imported via pipeline from Indonesia and Malaysia.[2]

In 2019, Singapore consumed 12.7 bcm of natural gas. There was 5.0 bcm of LNG imports in 2019, with 2.4 bcm from Australia, 0.8 bcm from the United States, and 0.6 bcm from Egypt. There was 8.1 bcm pipeline imports in 2019, with 6.8 bcm from Indonesia and 1.3 from other Asia Pacific countries.[8]

There are two separate gas pipeline networks in Singapore. Town gas is mainly used for cooking and heating by residential and commercial customers. A separate natural gas pipeline network is used for electricity generation and industrial feedstock.[9]

Potential New Gas Sources

Singapore has no indigenous natural gas reserves.[10]

Current Gas Supply Projects

The Natuna pipeline and Sumatra pipeline, with a combined total annual capacity of 8.3 bcm, are used to import natural gas from Indonesia. Current gas contracts with Indonesia include 3.37 bcm Annual Contract Quantity (ACQ) via the Natuna pipeline, expiring in 2022 and a 3.65 bcm ACQ via the Sumatra pipeline which expires in 2023.[2]

In November 2019, Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources announced that in order to meet their own domestic gas demand they will stop natural gas supply to Singapore from the Sumatra pipeline once the contract expires in 2023. The Indonesian government has not yet indicated whether the Natuna pipeline contract, set to expire in 2022, will be renewed. [11]

Until 2023, Singapore has about 8.1 bcm of contracted pipeline LNG. After the contracts expire in 2023, more LNG will need to be contracted or bought on the spot market in order to meet demand.[2]

Proposed Gas Supply Projects

Table 1: Proposed LNG Terminals in Singapore
Project Name Location Capacity Expected Commencement Date Sponsor Project Status Main Users
Singapore LNG Terminal Expansion Jurong Island 11 mtpa 2022-2023 SLNG EOI in December 2018[12]
Offshore LNG Terminal TBA TBA TBA EMA EOI for BOO in November 2019[13]; Regulatory framework for LNG terminal in progress[14]

Projection of Gas Production

There is no domestic gas production in Singapore.

Singapore Natural Gas Demand-Supply Outlook[2]

Articles and Resources

References

Related GEM.wiki articles

External resources

External articles

  1. "Singapore - Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate 2025". Statista. Retrieved 2021-02-12.
  2. 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.06 2.07 2.08 2.09 2.10 "Emerging Asia LNG Demand". Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Retrieved 2021-01-19.
  3. "Terminal and bunkering investments advance Singapore's LNG ambitions". Riviera. Retrieved 2021-01-19.
  4. "LNG to surpass piped gas in Singapore's future energy mix | S&P Global Platts analysis | S&P Global Platts". www.spglobal.com. 2019-12-06. Retrieved 2021-01-19.
  5. 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 "Singapore Electricity Market Outlook 2020" (PDF). Retrieved January 19, 2021.
  6. 6.0 6.1 6.2 "Natural Gas Balance Table". www.ema.gov.sg. Retrieved 2021-01-19.
  7. "Market Movers Asia Jan 18-22: LNG prices remain on spotlight; eyes on policies as Biden takes office | S&P Global Platts". www.spglobal.com. 2021-01-18. Retrieved 2021-01-19.
  8. "BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2020" (PDF). Retrieved January 19, 2021.
  9. "EMA : Overview of Gas Market". www.ema.gov.sg. Retrieved 2021-01-19.
  10. "EIA Singapore Overview". EIA. Retrieved January 19, 2021.
  11. Post, The Jakarta. "Indonesia to stop gas exports to Singapore in 2023". The Jakarta Post. Retrieved 2021-01-19.
  12. "SLNG tests the market demand for fifth LNG storage tank". Offshore Energy. 2018-12-12. Retrieved 2021-01-19.
  13. "Expression of Interest to Build, Own, and Operate Offshore LNG Terminal in Singapore" (PDF). Retrieved January 19, 2021.
  14. "Singapore drafting regulatory framework for 2nd LNG terminal, minister says". www.zawya.com. Retrieved 2021-01-19.