Europe Gas Tracker Report 2022 methodology

From Global Energy Monitor

Data sources and methodology

Data sources

The analysis in the Europe Gas Tracker Report 2022 is based on a March 2022 version of the Europe Gas Tracker dataset. See notes on the methodology behind the Europe Gas Tracker at the bottom of this page.

Notes on specific infrastructure projects

  • Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline: at the time of writing, this had entered construction, but the sections that terminate in Spain and Portugal were considered proposed.
  • Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline: at the time of writing, Nord Stream 2 was completed but was considered shelved, as there was no evidence that it would become operational in the near-term.

Pipeline length calculations

Throughout the report, pipeline length plays an important role in extrapolating costs of building pipeline infrastructure. For pipelines that cross national borders, we have calculated the fraction of that pipeline within a given country based on the route that we have in our database. We use the actual pipeline length multiplied by this fraction to calculate kilometers within a given country. If length is not available, we calculate it based on the route alone.

Figures

Figure 1: Estimated cost of future EU gas pipelines and terminals by country

For Figure 1, costs were calculated separately for pipelines, onshore LNG terminals, and offshore LNG terminals.

Euro-Gas-Report-2022-Fig1.png


Costs were reconstructed from totaling pipeline kilometers and LNG import terminal capacity, and using cost estimates as follows:

  • An average pipeline cost of €3.42 million per kilometer is assumed for the EU-27 countries; capacity expansion projects, where no new pipeline kilometers are built, are not included in these cost estimates.
  • Costs for LNG terminals per unit rate of volume transport are differentiated for floating and onshore terminals.
    • For floating (offshore) terminals, a cost of €102.38 million per bcm/y capacity is used
    • For onshore terminals, a cost of €184.88 million per bcm/y capacity is used.

Gas pipeline costs

Gas pipeline costs were calculated for each country by dividing estimated costs to build a given pipeline (in €) by the estimated kilometers of that pipeline, then averaged for the full EU-27. Only pipelines that had both a known length and estimated cost in the database were used to calculate costs.

Special cases in the GEM database:

Onshore LNG terminal costs

All expansion projects were removed before calculating costs, and a total of 11 projects was used to estimate an EU-27-wide onshore terminal cost of €184.88 million per bcm/y (see table below). This was done by dividing estimated costs to build each terminal (in €) by the total planned or operating capacity (in bcm/y).

Special cases in the GEM database:

  • Ravenna LNG Terminal: the cost was estimated at €100 million for a capacity of 0.001 bcm/y; this was considered an outlier and not included in LNG terminal cost estimates.
Name Country Status (2022) Capacity (bcm/y) Cost (millions of € per bcm/y)
Paldiski LNG Terminal Estonia Proposed 2.450000 163.398708
Tallinn LNG Terminal Estonia Shelved 3.670000 68.082795
Hamina LNG Terminal Finland Construction 0.140000 735.294186
Brunsbüttel LNG Terminal Germany Proposed 8.000000 56.250000
Shannon LNG Terminal Phase I Ireland Proposed 2.800000 232.142857
Porto Empedocle LNG Terminal Italy Shelved 8.160000 79.656870
Gran Canaria LNG Terminal Spain Proposed 1.360000 199.632372
Tenerife LNG Terminal Spain Cancelled 1.360000 220.588256
Stade LNG Terminal Germany Proposed 12.000000 83.333333
HIGAS LNG Terminal Italy Operating 0.410000 93.627460
Polish Baltic Sea Coast Terminal Poland Proposed 6.100000 101.639344

Offshore (floating) LNG terminal costs

All expansion projects were removed before calculating costs, and a total of 10 projects was used to estimate an EU-27-wide offshore terminal cost of €102.38 million per bcm/y (see table below). This was done by dividing estimate costs to build the terminal (in €) by total planned or operating capacity (in bcm/y).

Name Country Status Capacity (bcm/y) Cost (millions of € per bcm/y)
Krk LNG Terminal Croatia Operating 2.72 85.882361
Krk LNG Terminal Phase 2 Croatia Proposed 4.35 110.064349
Cyprus LNG Terminal Cyprus Construction 0.82 382.352977
Wilhelmshaven FSRU Terminal Germany Proposed 10.00 63.596491
Toscana LNG Terminal Italy Operating 3.81 144.432787
Klaipeda LNG Terminal Lithuania Operating 3.94 25.535937
Alexandroupolis LNG Terminal Greece Proposed 6.10 47.540984
Cork FSRU Terminal Ireland Cancelled 4.00 31.250000
Skulte LNG Terminal Latvia Proposed 6.20 17.741935
Dioriga FSRU Terminal Greece Proposed 2.60 115.384615

Figure 2: Historical consumption and future scenarios for EU-27 fossil gas

Euro-Gas-Report-2022-Fig2.png


All data below were converted to units of bcm/y to produce Figure 2. Conversion factors were estimated using BP Statistical Review of World Energy approximate conversion factor tables.

  • Historical data (purple line) show EU natural gas consumption combined from the European Commission’s 2020 statistical pocketbook and monthly commodity balance energy statistics from the EC's Eurostat database.
    • The EC's statistical pocketbook is only released every two years, and the 2021 version was not available at the time of writing, so we have used the 2020 version which includes data up to 2019.
    • To fill in 2020 and 2021, we used commodity balance statistics from the Eurostat database; specifically, we used the "IC_OBS,G3000,MIO_M3" variable within "nrg_cb_gasm" (monthly commodity balance energy data) for each EU-27 member state. At the time of writing (March 2022), 2021 monthly energy data were still not available for Estonia, Netherlands, Greece, Spain, and Croatia.
  • IEA scenario (dark blue line) shows projected consumption for the Sustainable Development Scenario from the World Energy Outlook 2021, taken from Table A.12 in Annex A, Tables for Scenario Projections.
  • European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG, light blue line) is the average of two low-emissions scenarios in Figure 27 of the Ten Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) 2022 Draft Scenario Report.
  • European Commission scenario (green line) portrays the average of three scenarios achieving 55% emissions reductions by 2030, from the 2030 Climate Target Plan.

Figure 3/ES1: EU-27 gas net imports and net import capacity

Euro-Gas-Report-2022-Fig3.png


All data below were converted to units of bcm/y to produce Figure 3. Conversion factors were estimated using BP Statistical Review of World Energy approximate conversion factor tables.

  • Historical data (purple line) show historical gas imports inferred by subtracting gas produced from gas consumed within EU-27 boundaries. Gas production and consumption data were taken from the European Commission's statistical pocketbook and country-level datasheets. A 2021 version of the dataset was used, but because the pocketbook provides biannual data, consumption data were only available out through 2019 at the time of writing (March 2022).
  • Blue and pink shading show historical and future natural gas import capacity (sum of pipelines and LNG terminals).
    • Blue shading until 2021 shows net EU-27 natural gas imports (imports minus exports) from ENTSOG pipeline transmission capacity maps for 2010–2021, plus all historical net LNG capacity (imports minus exports) in the GEM Europe Gas Tracker database. The portion from pipelines was reconstructed by totaling all EU-27 import and export capacities at interconnection points along the borders for each ENTSOG map during 2010–2021.
    • Blue shading during 2022 onward shows the total of operating pipeline and LNG terminal capacity (described in the bullet point above), plus any pipelines and terminals in construction as of March 2022, with their capacities being ramped up linearly to reach maximum within five years. These data are from the GEM Europe Gas Tracker database.
    • Pink shading shows all proposed gas pipeline and LNG import terminal capacity, with capacities being ramped up linearly to reach maximum within 10 years. These data are from the GEM Europe Gas Tracker database.
    • Blue lined section shows the maximum physical transmission capacity of pipelines importing into the EU-27 from non-EU countries along the eastern border. This is meant to represent a conservative estimate of the maximum possible amount of pipeline import capacity possible from Russia (around 247 bcm/y). This was calculated by totaling import capacity, though in practice Russian import volumes are much less, because (1) these interconnection points also carry gas from producers like Turkey and Azerbaijan, and (2) the capacities represent maximum rates of volume that the pipelines can withstand, rather than the actual volumes they carry throughout the year. See the end of this methodology documentation for more discussion on assumptions going into this Russia region in Figure 3.
  • IEA scenario (blue dash-dot line) shows inferred net import needs, calculated as the difference between projected demand and EU production for the Sustainable Development Scenario from the World Energy Outlook 2021, taken from Table A.11 in Annex A, Tables for Scenario Projections.
  • ENTSOG (blue dotted line) shows the average gas import projections of two low-emissions scenarios in Figure 31 of the TYNDP 2022 Draft Scenario Report.
  • European Commission scenario (green dashed line) portrays the average natural gas imports of three scenarios achieving 55% emissions reductions by 2030 from the EC’s 2030 Climate Target Plan.


These calculations assume no retirement of currently operating infrastructure and no new project development beyond what is currently announced.

Figure 4: Eastern EU

Figure 5: Western EU

Figure 6: Southern EU

Tables

Table 1. Gas import infrastructure commissioned in 2021

Name Capacity (bcm/y)
Medgaz Gas Pipeline capacity expansion 2.5
Serbian-Hungarian Gas Pipeline 6.0
HIGAS LNG Terminal 0.4
Krk LNG Terminal 2.7
Ravenna LNG Terminal 0.001
Total 11.6

Table 2. Delayed projects

Name Countries Est. cost (million €) Delay in start dates, and

status where known

Pipelines
Black Sea Shore-Podisor Gas Pipeline Romania 360 From 2020 to 2022/2023
Celorico-Spanish Border Gas Pipeline Portugal 115 From 2022 to 2025; no reported construction start
Interconnector Greece Bulgaria Bulgaria, Greece 240 From 2021 to 2022; in doubt
Ionian Adriatic Gas Pipeline (IAP) Albania, Montenegro, Croatia 586 2025; reported to be behind schedule with no construction start
Methanization of Sardinia Project Italy 600 From 2021 to 2025
Onești-Gheraesti-Letcani Gas Pipeline Romania 131 2021; no reported construction start
Poland-Ukraine Interconnector Poland, Ukraine 160 2022; no reported construction start
White Stream Gas Pipeline Georgia, Romania 4500 From 2018 to 2024; no reported construction start
LNG terminals
Cyprus LNG Terminal Cyprus 312 From 2021 to 2023; reported construction difficulties
Shannon LNG Terminal Ireland 650 From 2022 to unknown; proposed
Skulte LNG Terminal Latvia 110 Planned for 2024; still proposed
Total (pipelines and LNG terminals) 7764

Table 3. Future gas infrastructure in EU countries (under construction or proposed)

Country Pipeline length (km) Pipeline cost (million €) LNG terminal capacity (bcm/y) LNG terminal cost (million €) Total cost (million €)
Austria 28 106 106
Belgium 8.2 116 116
Bulgaria 1,766 2,574 2,574
Croatia 869 1,198 4.4 479 1,677
Cyprus 832 2,436 0.8 312 2,748
Czech Republic
Denmark 424 1,454 0.1 13 1,467
Estonia 2.5 400 400
Finland 0.1 100 100
France 10.6 3,077 3,077
Germany 30.0 2,086 2,086
Greece 2,319 7,995 8.7 590 8,585
Hungary 461 725 725
Ireland 26 89 11.5 1,648 1,737
Italy 1,632 5,227 5,227
Latvia 32 26 6.2 110 136
Lithuania 165 184 184
Luxembourg
Malta 71 182 182
Netherlands 1.5 277 277
Poland 1,878 3,919 9.4 1,195 5,113
Portugal 321 730 730
Romania 2,948 3,821 8.2 1,509 5,330
Slovakia 137 239 239
Slovenia 496 517 517
Spain 1,242 4,529 5.0 398 4,927
Sweden 86 296 296
Total 15,732 36,246 107.0 12,309 48,555

Table 4. EU gas crisis 2022: LNG import terminal proposals and developments since February

Name Country Project type Status Capacity (bcm/y) Est. cost (million €) Government backing Start date
Paldiski FSRU Terminal Estonia FSRU Proposed 500 Yes 2022
Rostock LNG Terminal Germany Unknown Cancelled in 2021; new project in area is being revived Unknown Unknown
Uniper Wilhelmshaven LNG Terminal Germany Onshore LNG terminal Proposed 20 Unknown 2025
TES Wilhelmshaven LNG Terminal Germany Onshore LNG terminal Proposed 10 Promoter is seeking government backing 2025
Argo FSRU Terminal Greece FSRU Proposed 4.6 226.5 Yes 2023
Thrace FSRU Terminal Greece FSRU Proposed 5.5 Unknown Unknown
Gioia Tauro LNG Terminal Italy Onshore LNG terminal Shelved to Proposed 12 1000 Yes 2026 (potentially)
Porto Empedocle LNG Terminal Italy Onshore LNG terminal Shelved to Proposed 8.2 650 Yes Unknown
At leat two new FSRUs Italy FSRU Proposed (speculation) 10 (minimum) Yes One by Q3, 2022
Eemshaven FSRU Terminal Netherlands FSRU Proposed 4 300 Yes Q3 2022
Gate LNG Terminal Netherlands Onshore LNG terminal Proposed capacity expansion 5–8 Yes Unknown

Table 5: Future gas infrastructure (pipelines and LNG terminals) by EU region

Construction Proposed
Cost (million €) Import capacity (bcm/y) Cost (million €) Import capacity (bcm/y)
Western EU 0 0 7204 61.7
Eastern EU 925 13.3 4795 65.8
Southern EU 312 0.8 11369 34.7
Northern EU 1850 0.1 13 0.1

Table 6: Planned pipelines to import gas into the EU

Country Pipeline name Capacity Length (km) Cost (million €)
Construction
Denmark Baltic Pipe Project 10 424 1,454
Poland 102 350
Sweden 86 296
Subtotal 10 613 2,100
Proposed
Cyprus Anamur to North Cyprus Gas Pipeline 42 144
Croatia Bosnia and Herzegovina–Croatia South Interconnection Gas Pipeline 1.5 62 213
Greece East Med Gas Pipeline (with expansion) 20 1,293 4,148
Cyprus 571 1,833
Romania Gheraesti-Siret Gas Pipeline 145 124
Croatia Ionian Adriatic Gas Pipeline 5 264 286
Cyprus Israel Cyprus Gas Pipeline 1 152 217
Bulgaria Macedonia-Bulgaria Interconnector Gas Pipeline 30 101
Spain Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline 617 2,390
Portugal 159 615
Bulgaria North Macedonia–Bulgaria Gas Pipeline 5 1
Italy, Greece Trans-Adriatic Gas Pipeline (capacity expansion) 10 -- 1,035
Bulgaria White Stream Gas Pipeline 32 160 546
Romania 118 405
Subtotal 69.5 3,617 12,059
Grand total 4,230 14,159

Table 7: Planned EU LNG import terminals

Country Terminal name Capacity (bcm/y) Cost (million €)
Construction
Cyprus Cyprus LNG Terminal (import) 0.8 312
Finland Hamina LNG Terminal 0.1 100
Poland Świnoujście Polskie LNG Terminal (expansion) 2.5 427
Poland Świnoujście Polskie LNG Terminal (expansion 2) 0.8 148
Subtotal 4.3 987
Proposed
Greece Alexandroupolis LNG Terminal 6.1 290
Germany Brunsbüttel LNG Terminal 8.0 450
Romania Constanta LNG Terminal 8.2 1,509
Malta Delimara Onshore LNG Terminal
Greece Dioriga FSRU Terminal 2.6 300
France Fos Cavaou LNG Terminal (expansion 1) 2.7 1,571
France Fos Cavaou LNG Terminal (expansion 2) 5.4 1,006
Denmark Frederikshavn LNG Terminal 0.1 13
Netherlands Gate LNG Terminal (expansion) 1.5 277
Spain Gran Canaria LNG Terminal 1.4 272
Croatia Krk LNG Terminal Phase 2 4.4 479
France Montoir LNG Terminal (expansion) 2.5 500
Spain Mugardos LNG Terminal (expansion) 3.6 36
Estonia Paldiski LNG Terminal 2.5 400
Poland Polish Baltic Sea Coast Terminal 6.1 620
Ireland Predator FSRU Terminal 3.3
Spain Puerto de la Luz LNG Terminal 90
Finland Rauma LNG terminal
Ireland Shannon LNG Terminal Phase I 2.8 650
Ireland Shannon LNG Terminal Phase II 2.1 388
Ireland Shannon LNG Terminal Phase III 3.3 610
Latvia Skulte LNG Terminal 6.2 110
Germany Stade LNG Terminal 12.0 1,000
Germany Wilhelmshaven FSRU Terminal 10.0 636
Belgium Zeebrugge LNG Terminal, 2024 Expansion 6.4 116
Belgium Zeebrugge LNG Terminal, 2026 Expansion 1.8
Subtotal 102.7 11,322
Grand total 107.0 12,309

Table 8: Future gas pipelines within the EU

Country Pipeline name Capacity (bcm/y) Total pipeline length (km) Length in country (km) Cost (million Euro)
Construction
Bulgaria Bulgaria-Serbia Interconnector Gas Pipeline 1.8 170 62 49
Poland Gas Interconnection Poland-Lithuania (GIPL) 2.4 508 343 382
Lithuania 165 184
Bulgaria Gas Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria (IGB) 3 184 157 205
Greece 27 35
Poland Gustorzyn-Wronów Gas Pipeline 308 308 1054
Italy Methanization of Sardinia Project 573 573 615
Poland Pogórska-Wola-Tworzen Gas Pipeline 168 168 301
Slovakia Poland-Slovakia Gas Pipeline 5.7 165 108 177
Poland 57 93
Pipelines with length < 150 km 610 1308
Subtotal 2578 4403
Proposed
Italy Adriatica Pipeline 8.8 170 170 582
Romania BRUA Gas Pipeline 843 843 530
Romania Black Sea Shore–Podișor Gas Pipeline 308 308 360
Portugal Celorico-Spanish Border Gas Pipeline 162 162 115
Cyprus Cyprus-Egypt Gas Pipeline 8 215 23 93
Romania Eastring Pipeline 20 1208 646 1391
Hungary 299 644
Bulgaria 232 500
Slovakia 29 61
Spain Guitiriz-Zamora-Adradas Gas Pipeline 625 625 2140
Slovenia Hungary-Slovenia-Italy Interconnector Gas Pipeline 1.2 412 250 125
Hungary 161 80
Italy 1 0
Croatia Interconnector Croatia-Serbia 7 182 109 93
Cyprus Israel–Egypt Offshore Gas Pipeline 10 593 43 149
Italy Malta-Italy Gas Pipeline 2 159 88 228
Malta 71 182
Romania North–Vest Romania Pipeline 518 518 405
Croatia Omišalj-Zlobin-Bosiljevo-Sisak-Kozarac-Slobodnica LNG main evacuation pipeline 10 180 180 198
Romania Onești-Gheraesti-Letcani Gas Pipeline 165 165 131
Greece Poseidon Gas Pipeline 15 976 914 3183
Italy 62 217
Italy Sealine Tirrenica gas pipeline 255 255 873
Bulgaria Varna-Oryahovo Gas Pipeline 844 844 677
Pipelines with length < 150 km 1926 4727
Subtotal 8924 17685
Grand total 11502 22088

Balancing issues: EU-27 reliance on Russian gas

Treated as a whole, our findings suggest that EU-27 has sufficient natural gas import capacity if Russian pipeline imports, as measured by the striped region in Figure 3, were removed. However, this carries a few assumptions that should guide its interpretation, on which we elaborate below.

Imbalance in location of LNG import capacity

While EU-27 as a whole may have sufficient gas import capacity to not rely on Russian imports, the majority of this excess import capacity is currently in Spain, and analysis by ING suggests that LNG regasification capacity is already at a maximum in early 2022.

Robustness of EU-27 pipeline network to distribute gas imported from the west

Due to the location of LNG import terminals, the bulk of excess natural gas capacity is in Spain, but there is insufficient pipeline infrastructure to redistribute this gas to the rest of EU-27.

Possible workarounds

There is a possibility that gas could be carried through pipelines of non-EU nations and make up this west–east natural gas capacity imbalance, but there is no clear solution to do this yet.

Using storage better

Another approach would be for EU-27 member states to use natural gas storage better, to buffer against supply shocks, though the issues of import capacity imbalance and east–west distribution would still likely exist to a degree.

Europe Gas Tracker methodology

The Europe Gas Tracker uses a two-level system for organizing information. Summary data is maintained in Google sheets, with each spreadsheet row linked to a page on GEM.wiki. Each wiki page functions as a footnoted fact sheet for a particular piece of infrastructure, containing project parameters, background, and mapping coordinates.

Each piece of information is linked to a published reference, such as a news article, company report, or regulatory permit. For each project, one of the following status categories is assigned and reviewed on a rolling basis:

  • Proposed: Projects that have appeared in corporate or government plans, or in news reports, in either pre-permit or permitted stages.
  • Construction: Site preparation and other development and construction activities are underway.
  • Shelved: In the absence of an announcement that the sponsor is putting its plans on hold, a project is considered “shelved” if there are no reports of activity over a period of two years.
  • Cancelled: In some cases a sponsor announces that it has cancelled a project. More often a project fails to advance and then quietly disappears from company documents. A project that was previously in an active category is changed to “cancelled” if it disappears from company documents, even if no announcement is made. In the absence of a cancellation announcement, a project is considered “cancelled” if there are no reports of activity over a period of four years.
  • Operating: The project has been formally commissioned or has entered commercial operation.
  • Mothballed: Previously operating projects that are not operating but maintained for potential restart.
  • Retired: Permanently closed projects.


To allow easy public access to the results, Global Energy Monitor works with GreenInfo Network to develop a map-based and table-based interface using the Leaflet Open-Source JavaScript library, publicly viewable at Europe Gas Tracker.